Skip to content
Suburb profile ·Port Stephens LGA · NSW ·2315

Shoal Bay NSW 2315

Shoal Bay is in Port Stephens LGA, NSW, postcode 2315, with population 1,815.

The read

Livability-led

There are enough stretched or weaker signals here that you should assume trade-offs rather than a clean story. Use compare mode to see whether the downside is price, local quality, or weaker momentum before treating it as a target suburb.

$632/wk
Rising
+7.8% YoY
Jun 2025 → Jun 2026 · 13 periods
NSW Fair Trading · postcode 2315 · Jun 2026
$700
$575
Jun 2025Jun 2026
Why it fits

Transport coverage adds a practical access signal.

What to check

Gross yield looks low for an income-first use case.

Read full evidence → Compare suburb Run calculator
Median house
$1.1M
House median, latest period
↓17.3%YoY D7 vs AU
Median rent
$632/wk
Rent context available
↑7.8%YoY D10 vs AU
Gross yield
3.1%
Low yield band
D9 vs AU
Population
1,815
2K local footprint
D8 vs AU
Schools
1
Matched school context
D1 vs AU
Drive to city
3h
215 km to Sydney CBD · free-flow
Solar
2,996
173 added 12mo · 18MW
Price cycleCorrecting
LowPeak

17.3% below peak · 187.7% above its low

See trend depth →

Price history

House and unit medians · ABS + state datasets

Trend & investor depth

Derived from this suburb's own price, rent and income history
Cycle positionCorrecting
Low · 2011Peak · 2025

17.3% below peak · 187.7% above its low

Price growth (compound)% per year
3-yr
-0.8%
5-yr
+1.6%
10-yr
+6.9%
Indicative cashflow-$560/wk (-$29,112/yr) · interest-only @ 6.4%, 80% LVR
Market turnover5.0% of homes traded/yr (45 sales · -31% vs 3-yr avg)
Rent stabilitytypical — rents vary ±4.7% around trend (short window, 13 pts)
Value vs advantage+50% vs suburbs of similar SEIFA advantage (decile 3)

Indicative cashflow is interest-only and excludes tax — use the calculator for a full projection. Turnover divides recorded sales by an estimated household count (population over average household size).

Investment grade

Composite · growth · yield · stability
Dgrade · 22/100 · top 78% of 3,604AU suburbs
Peer distributionstronger than 22% of AU suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Capital growth9
Rental yield58
Stability36
Volatility-14.5ppCycle-1.0

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer · stability drivers signed (+ = steadier)

Relative grade across Australian suburbs, combining qp's capital-growth (multi-year CAGR + cycle timing), rental-yield, and stability (price volatility + cycle + affordability) metrics via a three-pillar property-scoring method with an imbalance penalty. Within-Australia relative, indicative only — not financial advice.

Investor profile

Who invests in Shoal Bay

Owner-occupied 63%Rented 37%
Investor activityATO
Negatively geared5.3%
471 of 1,387 landlords
Avg rental loss$7,487/yr
Landlords (rental income)1,387
Reported capital gains968
Investor exposure index(moderate vs national)76.1/100
The read

Mixed owner-renter market

55% of homes here are owner-occupied and 33% rented, with 5% of landlords negatively geared.

Why it fits

A balanced 55% owner-occupier / 33% renter mix.

ABS Census 2021 tenure (G37), ATO postcode rental statistics, and QuickProperty's investor-exposure index. Owner-occupied = owned outright + with a mortgage.

Mortgage affordability

RBA rate · ABS Census 2021 household income
118%
of household income to service a new loan
26.7 yrs
to save a 20% deposit
Severe
housing-stress band
Rent vs buyRenting cheaper

New-loan repayment $5,145/mo vs median rent $2,739/mo (+88% · +$555/wk)

If rates move

At 4.2%: $4,108/mo (-1,037) · at 6.2% (current): $5,145/mo · at 8.2%: $6,281/mo (+1,136)

Assumes a 20% deposit and a 30-year principal-and-interest loan at the current RBA new owner-occupier variable rate, against median weekly household income (ABS Census 2021). Stress bands follow the 30% / 45%-of-income thresholds used in ANZ-CoreLogic and AIHW reporting. Rent vs buy compares that repayment with the suburb's median advertised rent; it excludes rates, insurance, maintenance and deposit opportunity cost.

Stronger alternatives nearby

Similar-priced suburbs in other council areas that rate higher on a metric.

Higher yield

similar price · cross-LGA

Stronger 5-yr growth

similar price · cross-LGA

More affordable

lower price-to-income

Alternatives are similar-priced suburbs (0.7–1.4x this suburb's median) in other council areas that exceed it on the named metric. Indicative — not financial advice.

Affordability

Buying & renting · ABS Census + state data
Buying
20.1x
median home price as a multiple of annual household income
Stretched
Renting
63%
median weekly rent as a share of gross household income (the 30% rule)
High stress

Owners with a mortgage repay a median of $1,700/mo, while renters pay about $2,739/mo — renting runs $1,039/mo higher on these medians.

Median price
$1.05M
Household income · yr
$52K
Median rent · wk
$632
Owner mortgage · mo
$1,700
Gross yield
3.1%

Household income

ABS Census · ATO
$52K household · yr-36.4% vs NSW suburb median
Personal
$32K
Family
$75K
Household
$52K
Household income distribution (ABS Census 2021 · weekly)5% could service the median house
Under $300
44
$300-649
169
$650-999
157
$1,000-1,499
141
$1,500-1,999
68
$2,000-2,999
102
$3,000-3,999
29
$4,000+
37

Serviceability line: a household needs about $3,957/wk to hold a new loan on the median house at 30% of income (20% deposit, 30-year P&I, current RBA rate).

At the median asking rent, about 79% of households here would spend more than 30% of income on rent (rent stress line: $2,107/wk income).

Housing stock and tenure

ABS Census 2021
Tenure (821 households)3.3% social housing
Owned outright
39%
Owned with mortgage
16%
Rented
33%
Dwelling structure45.6% of dwellings unoccupied on census night
Separate house
53%
Townhouse / semi
33%
Flat / apartment
14%

Getting to work: 67% drive, 2% public transport, 7% walk or cycle, 22% worked from home (2021 Census, taken during COVID-era work-from-home arrangements).

Schools

ACARA 2025
Total1
Avg ICSEA962
Students237
Government1
  • Shoal Bay Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 962

Livability

OSM · GTFS · schools + hospitals
43/ 100 livability index

Top 57% most liveable of 4,565Australian suburbs.

Peer distributionstronger than 43% of Australian suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Everyday access49
Public transport (16 stops)47
Schools & hospitals25

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

Suburb-level access-density index (not an address-level walk-time score), normalised within Australian suburbs. Method based on the Urban Liveability Index (Higgs et al. 2019) and Walk Score — three equal-weighted domains combined with an imbalance penalty.

Crime April 2025 - March 2026
2,566
3,252 per 100k
D5 vs AU

Crime

lga
Rate · per 100k3,252
Total incidents2,566· April 2025 - March 2026
  • Assault82165%
  • Sexual Offences24319%
  • Robbery111%
  • Break And Enter19215%

Development screen

Could a secondary dwelling be worth investigating?

Limited supporting context
secondary dwelling / granny flat screening context High broad constraint context

Policy position

Official policy reviewed

Permitted in residential zones under the Housing SEPP; may be approved by consent or as complying development when Housing SEPP and Codes SEPP standards are met.

Rental use: Secondary dwelling rental use is allowed as a dwelling use, subject to planning and tenancy rules.

Open official policy source

Separate houses

28.6%

Suburb share of occupied private dwellings recorded as separate houses.

48.9 pp below the state median

State median 77.5% · 1,253 valid suburbs

Residential-zone context

16.9%

Broad suburb sampling only; the property zoning and overlays can differ.

25.4 pp below the state median

State median 42.3% · 1,245 valid suburbs

Rental households

32.8%

Demand context only; it does not establish permission to rent a secondary dwelling.

6.9 pp above the state median

State median 25.9% · 1,253 valid suburbs

Mapped hazards

bushfire high

The staged suburb layer indicates a broad-area constraint that needs address-level checking. No broad-area layer staged for this suburb.

Approval pathway

Four checks, each with a different evidence threshold.

This is an investigation sequence, not a guarantee that every step applies or that approval will be granted.

  1. 01 Source reviewed

    State policy position

    QuickProperty reviewed the official secondary dwelling / granny flat policy source.

  2. 02 Property dependent

    Planning pathway

    Test consent or complying-development eligibility, including the 450 m² lot marker and all other standards.

  3. 03 Design dependent

    Building approval

    Confirm the building approval route after the design, site classifications, services and construction requirements are known.

  4. 04 Check separately

    Intended use

    Confirm long-term rental, short-stay or family-use rules separately from permission to construct the dwelling.

Property due diligence

Turn the suburb screen into a property checklist.

Every check starts unconfirmed. Progress stays in this browser and suburb evidence never clears an address-level requirement.

0evidence acquired
0evidence missing
0reviews due
0consultant questions

Active record: Shoal Bay unnamed property

0/14checked
0issues found

Site controls

Lot area and dimensions

Confirm title dimensions, usable site area and any minimum lot threshold.

Status for Lot area and dimensions
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Setbacks and site coverage

Test setbacks, private open space, landscaping and maximum site coverage against a concept plan.

Status for Setbacks and site coverage
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Slope and ground conditions

Check survey levels, soil classification, retaining needs and likely earthworks.

Status for Slope and ground conditions
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Title and planning

Zoning and overlays

Obtain current property-level zoning, overlays and applicable planning controls.

Status for Zoning and overlays
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Title, easements and covenants

Review the title for easements, covenants, restrictions and common property.

Status for Title, easements and covenants
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Services and access

Sewer and stormwater

Locate assets and connection points, then confirm capacity, clearances and discharge requirements.

Status for Sewer and stormwater
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Power, water and metering

Confirm service routes, upgrade needs and whether separate metering is permitted or practical.

Status for Power, water and metering
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Vehicle access and parking

Test driveway width, gradients, turning, parking and emergency access requirements.

Status for Vehicle access and parking
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Construction constraints

Bushfire exposure

Order an address-level bushfire assessment and determine any BAL construction response.

Status for Bushfire exposure
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Flood and overland flow

Obtain property flood information and check floor levels, flow paths and drainage constraints.

Status for Flood and overland flow
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Wind, corrosion and termite

Confirm site classifications that affect structural design, materials and durability.

Status for Wind, corrosion and termite
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Approval and use

Planning approval pathway

Confirm exemption, complying pathway or permit requirements with the responsible authority.

Status for Planning approval pathway
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Building approval and consultants

Identify required survey, design, engineering, energy, certification and inspection evidence.

Status for Building approval and consultants
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Rental and intended use

Confirm occupation, rental, short-stay and family-use rules plus insurance and tax implications.

Status for Rental and intended use
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Shoal Bay, NSW 2315 · Local browser record

Investigation aid only. Confirm current planning, building, title, service and hazard requirements with qualified professionals and responsible authorities.

Building due diligence

Construction requirements can change by location.

1 broad-area layer staged

The National Construction Code is the baseline. Local hazards and site classifications can change the required structure, materials, fixings, insulation and detailing.

Known here

SUBURB CONTEXT

Bushfire-prone land

Severe broad-area context

About 81.5% of the suburb intersects mapped bushfire-prone land.

May affect: External construction · Roof and wall systems · Openings, screens and decks

Check the property

ADDRESS + DESIGN

NCC climate zone

Check the property

Confirm the NCC climate zone used for the building design and energy provisions.

May affect: Insulation and glazing · Condensation control · Roof-space ventilation

Wind class and BAL

Site assessment required

A suburb layer cannot determine the site wind classification or Bushfire Attack Level.

May affect: Structure and tie-downs · Cladding and fixings · Openings and bushfire detailing

Corrosion and termite exposure

Check the property

Confirm marine or corrosive exposure and the applicable termite-management requirements.

May affect: Fasteners and connectors · Roofing and coatings · Termite management

This screen identifies investigation triggers, not building quality or property compliance. Confirm the address, design and current jurisdiction rules with the council, building surveyor or certifier, designer and engineer.

NCC 2022 Housing Provisions: how to use · NCC 2022 Volume Two and Housing Provisions

Bushfire exposure

NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Severe exposure ~81.5%
~81.5% of the suburb is Bush Fire Prone Land · ~63.1% Category 1 (highest hazard)

Estimated exposure to NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land (CC BY), point-sampled across the suburb. This shows how much of the suburb sits within the official hazard layer — it is not a Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) rating or a property-level assessment. Obtain a BAL assessment (AS 3959) for an individual property.

Planning zones

NSW Land Zoning (EPI)
Dominant zone National Parks and Nature Reserves
Public / Open space 76% Residential 15% Commercial / Mixed 1%
Residential density: Low

Land-use mix estimated by point-sampling the suburb against NSW EPI Land Zoning polygons (CC BY 4.0). This is a suburb-level snapshot of planning zones, not a parcel-level zoning certificate or development advice. Check the relevant planning scheme for an individual property.

Population outlook

ABS projection · Nelson Bay Peninsula SA2 area · 2022 base
21,968 people · 202222,594 by 2032 (+2.8%)

ABS population projection (2022 base) for the Nelson Bay Peninsula SA2 statistical area — the finest official projection grain available; suburb-level projections do not exist.

Full data detail Census · ATO · ABS · state datasets
Shoal Bay NSW — Property Data and Demographics

Located in New South Wales within the Port Stephens local government area, Shoal Bay is a small locality (postcode 2315). With a population of 1,815, the suburb has a predominantly older resident base with a median age of 59. Households earn a median income of $52K per year, with an average household size of 2 people. Recent annual estimates show population movement staying broadly stable across the broader catchment, with population growth running at +1.3% year-on-year at the LGA level. NSW employment has moved +1.2% year-on-year in the official ABS Labour Force trend series, which provides the broader jobs backdrop for this suburb. NSW also had 35 Commonwealth-backed major projects under construction, 17 underway, and 67 in planning as at 2025-09-01, which is useful as a broader delivery backdrop rather than a suburb-specific project count. The most common occupations are technicians & trades, professionals, community & personal service. Employment in the area leans toward healthcare and accommodation & food. The top ancestries reported are English, Australian, Irish.

The median house price in Shoal Bay is $1.1 million, having declined steeply by 17.3% over the past year. Units have a median price of $823,000 (+13.8% YoY). The current median weekly rent is $632. This gives a gross rental yield of approximately 3.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,700.

Shoal Bay is served by 1 school, including 1 primary. The average ICSEA score is 962, which is around the national average of 1,000. Public transport access includes 16 bus stops. The crime rate in the Port Stephens LGA is below average at 3,252 incidents per 100,000 population.

From an investment perspective, Shoal Bay shows a gross rental yield of approximately 3.1%, rated as moderate yield. Property prices are near the state median ($1.1M/$1.5M). The price-to-income ratio of 20.1x is considered stretched. House prices have moved -17.3% year-on-year. Population growth of +1.3% year-on-year points to stable demand fundamentals. Building approvals have changed +0% year-on-year, indicating steady development activity.

Market & money
Investment signalsHeuristics
Rental Yield3.1%· Moderate Yield
Price vs State$1.1M/$1.5M· Near Median
Affordability20.1x↓ Stretched
Price Momentum-17.3%↓ Falling
Pop. Growth+1.3%· Stable
Development+0%· Steady
InvestmentNSW
Mortgage · mth$1,700
Rent · wk(Census)$338
Market rent · wk(2026-06)$632
Gross yield1.7%
Price / income20.1x
Sales vol (latest Q)(2025-Q4)5
Population growth · Port Stephens LGAABS ERP
Population (2025)80,070
5-year growth+1.5% CAGR
YoY change+1.3%
20012025
Development · Port Stephens LGAABS Approvals
Approvals (2026)608
Houses 71%Units 29%
YoY change+0%
Employment · Port Stephens LGASALM
Unemployment (Dec-25)4.5%
YoY change-0.3pp
Dec-10Dec-25
Property investors · Postcode 2315ATO
Negatively geared5.3%
471 of filers
Avg rental loss$7,487/yr
Landlords (rental income)1,387
Reported capital gains968
People & prosperity
DemographicsCensus 21
Population1,815
Median age59
Household size2
HH income · wk$1,007
Personal income · wk$623
Persons / bedroom0.7
SEIFA indexABS
Advantage (IRSAD)3/10
Education (IEO)4/10
Economic (IER)2/10
Disadvantage (IRSD)3/10
Income momentumCensus 16→21
HH income · wk$908 → $1,007
Change+10.9%
vs NSW median-9.7 pp
Median rent+12.7%
softeningvs NSW 2016–21
Top occupationsCensus
Technicians & Trades109Professionals105Community & Personal Service102Labourers79Clerical & Administrative66
Top industriesCensus
Healthcare111Accommodation & Food88Construction56Retail Trade50Education42
Top ancestryCensus
English736Australian618Irish240Scottish193German85
Area & amenity
Local amenitiesOSM
Supermarkets1
Pharmacies0
GP / clinics0
Fuel stations0
Cafes & dining3
iga1
TransportGTFS
Bus stops16
Hospitals · Port Stephens LGAAIHW
Public1
Private0
Tomaree Community Hospitalpublic
Aged care · Port Stephens LGAGEN
Facilities5
Residential places482
Harbourside Residential Care151 places · in suburb
Regis Port Stephens150 places
Raymond Terrace Gardens Care Community80 places
Uniting Salamander Bay60 places
Calvary Tanilba Shores Retirement Community41 places
Childcare · Port Stephens LGAACECQA
Services54
Approved places3,047
Exceeding NQS8
Little Beginnings at Medowie126 places
Busy Bees at Salt Ash120 places
St Nicholas Early Education Raymond Terrace110 places
The Learning Terrace Early Education, Care and Preschool109 places
Discover and Learn Academy104 places
Milestones Early Learning Fern Bay104 places
+48 more in Port Stephens LGA
Nearby in Port Stephens LGA12
Fingal Bay$1.3M · 1,635Soldiers Point$1.3M · 1,564Wallalong$990K · 1,049Salt Ash$928K · 1,103Karuah$595K · 1,618Seaham$1.3M · 1,011Lemon Tree Passage$723K · 2,686Tanilba Bay$765K · 3,237Anna Bay$908K · 4,221Fullerton Cove$1.1M · 735Fern Bay$1.2M · 4,046Mallabula$720K · 963
Tax calculatorsaustax.tools
Stamp Duty CalculatorNSW ↗Land Tax CalculatorNSW ↗Capital Gains Tax↗Depreciation Calculator↗Investment Property Tax↗
Shortlist workspace

Save suburbs here while you browse. Once the shortlist has two or more names, hand it straight into compare.

Current status
Add Shoal Bay if it deserves a shortlist slot.

No saved AU suburbs yet.

EMPTY SET

No saved suburbs yet. Start with one ranking or suburb page, then compare once you have two candidates.

Open rankings to save the first candidates.

Model current suburb
Sources & freshness
Strong evidence

There is enough direct local evidence on Shoal Bay for a first-pass decision.

QuickProperty mixes release files, Census baselines, and matched local services on this page. Read the status panel before treating every metric as equally fresh.

PRICE POSTURE
NSW price medians are parser-guarded official records.

Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records

RENT POSTURE
Rent is using a state market dataset when available.

Use current rent as a starting signal, not as a fixed underwriting truth.

SERVICE POSTURE
Service coverage is matched locally, not inferred nationally.

Schools, transport, and hospitals are useful as presence signals, but they still have different source cadences.

Data status
Property prices
NSW Valuer General · 2025-Q4 · Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records
medium stability · automated · every update · weekly
Available
Market rent
NSW Fair Trading · 2026-06 · State market dataset
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Crime
BOCSAR · April 2025 - March 2026 · Area-level release dataset
medium stability · automated · every update · release-based
Available
Schools
ACARA 2025 · 1 schools matched
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Hospitals
AIHW · No linked local hospital coverage
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Missing
Transport
GTFS feeds · 16 matched stops/stations
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Available
Population growth
ABS ERP · 2025 · Annual estimate series
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Building approvals
ABS Building Approvals · 2026 · Annual release series
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Available means a direct local dataset is linked. Verify means coverage exists but freshness or precision is weaker, such as ABS price fallback, Census rent fallback, or low-confidence hospital matching.

Shoal Bay FAQ

Common questions
  1. What LGA is Shoal Bay in?

    Shoal Bay is in the Port Stephens Local Government Area, NSW, postcode 2315. Council-level context for Port Stephens LGA (suburb mix, population, rent, and price coverage) is available on the QuickProperty LGA page.

  2. What is the median house price in Shoal Bay?

    The current median house price in Shoal Bay, NSW is $1.1M, based on the latest available sales data from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region.

  3. What is the typical weekly rent in Shoal Bay?

    The median weekly rent in Shoal Bay is $632/wk, based on the current market rent dataset. The current rent signal is rent context available.

  4. What does the rent signal say about Shoal Bay?

    Rent context available: Shoal Bay has usable rent context. Use this as a suburb screening signal before comparing candidates or modelling a purchase; the matching rent ranking can provide broader market context.

  5. Is Shoal Bay a good investment?

    QuickProperty's investment signals for Shoal Bay show: Moderate Yield, Near Median, Stretched. These are computed from price, rent, income, and population data — not an opaque score.

  6. Where does QuickProperty get its data for Shoal Bay?

    Property prices come from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region. Demographics are from ABS Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA. Crime statistics are from state police agencies. Transport data is sourced from GTFS feeds.

  7. How often is the Shoal Bay data updated?

    Property prices update quarterly. RBA macro indicators update with each deploy. Demographics are from Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA 2025.