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Suburb profile ·Frankston LGA · VIC ·3201

Carrum Downs VIC 3201

Carrum Downs is in Frankston LGA, VIC, postcode 3201, with population 21,976.

The read

Livability-led

The page has enough signal to be useful, but the story is mixed rather than decisive. Use compare mode to pressure-test it against stronger nearby options, then use the calculator if it still makes the shortlist.

$560/wk
Rising
+7.7% YoY
Dec 2020 → Sep 2025 · 20 periods
Homes Victoria · Sep 2025
$560
$380
Dec 2020Sep 2025
Why it fits

Population scale is large enough to avoid reading this as a tiny locality only. School coverage gives the page a stronger family/livability signal. Transport coverage adds a practical access signal.

Median house
$720K
House median, latest period
0.5%YoY D4 vs AU
Median rent
$560/wk
Income-stretched rent market
7.7%YoY D10 vs AU
Gross yield
4.0%
Moderate yield band
D10 vs AU
Population
21,976
22K local footprint
D10 vs AU
Schools
4
Matched school context
D10 vs AU
Drive to city
41 min
47.1 km to Melbourne CBD · free-flow
Transit to city
89 min
Public transport to Melbourne CBD · weekday 8am
Solar
3,332
129 added 12mo · 24MW

Price history

Rental vacancy rate

Rental vacancy rate · Greater Melbourne
2.5%
Balanced market

Official vacancy is published at the Greater Melbourne level, not per suburb. Shaded band marks a balanced market (2.5–3.5%).

Source: Homes Victoria Rental Report (DFFH) · Latest: Sep 2025

Trend & investor depth

Indicative cashflow-$289/wk (-$15,024/yr) · interest-only @ 6.4%, 80% LVR
Rent stabilitytypical — rents vary ±7.4% around trend
Value vs advantage+18% vs suburbs of similar SEIFA advantage (decile 4)

Indicative cashflow is interest-only and excludes tax — use the calculator for a full projection. Turnover divides recorded sales by an estimated household count (population over average household size).

Investment grade

Cgrade · 50/100 · top 50% of 3,604AU suburbs
Peer distributionstronger than 50% of AU suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Capital growth12
Rental yield80
Stability68
Volatility-8.0ppCycle-2.0Affordability-1.5

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer · stability drivers signed (+ = steadier)

Relative grade across Australian suburbs, combining qp's capital-growth (multi-year CAGR + cycle timing), rental-yield, and stability (price volatility + cycle + affordability) metrics via a three-pillar property-scoring method with an imbalance penalty. Within-Australia relative, indicative only — not financial advice.

Investor profile

Who invests in Carrum Downs

Owner-occupied 72%Rented 28%
Investor activityATO
Negatively geared5.4%
731 of 1,109 landlords
Avg rental loss$7,694/yr
Landlords (rental income)1,109
Reported capital gains580
Investor exposure index(moderate vs national)52.7/100
The read

Mixed owner-renter market

70% of homes here are owner-occupied and 27% rented, with 5% of landlords negatively geared.

Why it fits

A balanced 70% owner-occupier / 27% renter mix.

ABS Census 2021 tenure (G37), ATO postcode rental statistics, and QuickProperty's investor-exposure index. Owner-occupied = owned outright + with a mortgage.

Mortgage affordability

49%
of household income to service a new loan
11.1 yrs
to save a 20% deposit
Severe
housing-stress band
Rent vs buyRenting cheaper

New-loan repayment $3,528/mo vs median rent $2,427/mo (+45% · +$254/wk)

If rates move

At 4.2%: $2,817/mo (-711) · at 6.2% (current): $3,528/mo · at 8.2%: $4,307/mo (+779)

Assumes a 20% deposit and a 30-year principal-and-interest loan at the current RBA new owner-occupier variable rate, against median weekly household income (ABS Census 2021). Stress bands follow the 30% / 45%-of-income thresholds used in ANZ-CoreLogic and AIHW reporting. Rent vs buy compares that repayment with the suburb's median advertised rent; it excludes rates, insurance, maintenance and deposit opportunity cost.

Stronger alternatives nearby

Higher yield

similar price · cross-LGA

Stronger 5-yr growth

similar price · cross-LGA

More affordable

lower price-to-income

Alternatives are similar-priced suburbs (0.7–1.4x this suburb's median) in other council areas that exceed it on the named metric. Indicative — not financial advice.

Affordability

Buying
8.4x
median home price as a multiple of annual household income
Moderate
Renting
34%
median weekly rent as a share of gross household income (the 30% rule)
Stretched

Owners with a mortgage repay a median of $1,733/mo, while renters pay about $2,427/mo — renting runs $694/mo higher on these medians.

Median price
$720K
Household income · yr
$86K
Median rent · wk
$560
Owner mortgage · mo
$1,733
Gross yield
4.0%

Household income

$86K household · yr+4.7% vs VIC suburb median
Personal
$42K
Family
$104K
Household
$86K
Household income distribution (ABS Census 2021 · weekly)20% could service the median house
Under $300
271
$300-649
971
$650-999
964
$1,000-1,499
1,313
$1,500-1,999
1,179
$2,000-2,999
1,948
$3,000-3,999
747
$4,000+
402

Serviceability line: a household needs about $2,714/wk to hold a new loan on the median house at 30% of income (20% deposit, 30-year P&I, current RBA rate).

At the median asking rent, about 56% of households here would spend more than 30% of income on rent (rent stress line: $1,867/wk income).

Median taxable income trend (ATO, 2018-19 – 2022-23)$51K → $61K

Housing stock and tenure

Tenure (8,307 households)2.3% social housing
Owned outright
22%
Owned with mortgage
48%
Rented
27%
Dwelling structure4.4% of dwellings unoccupied on census night
Separate house
79%
Townhouse / semi
20%
Flat / apartment
0%

Getting to work: 78% drive, 1% public transport, 1% walk or cycle, 16% worked from home (2021 Census, taken during COVID-era work-from-home arrangements).

Schools

Total4
Avg ICSEA1003
Students2,554
Catholic1
Government3
  • Banyan Fields Primary SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 987
  • Rowellyn Park Primary SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 1003
  • Carrum Downs Secondary CollegeSecondary · Government · ICSEA 969
  • St Joachim's SchoolPrimary · Catholic · ICSEA 1052

Livability

96/ 100 livability index

Top 4% most liveable of 4,565Australian suburbs.

Peer distributionstronger than 96% of Australian suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Everyday access96
Public transport (105 stops)96
Schools & hospitals81

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

Suburb-level access-density index (not an address-level walk-time score), normalised within Australian suburbs. Method based on the Urban Liveability Index (Higgs et al. 2019) and Walk Score — three equal-weighted domains combined with an imbalance penalty.

Crime Year ending Mar 2026
17,079
11,751 per 100k
D9 vs AU

Crime

Rate · per 100k11,751
Total incidents17,079· Year ending Mar 2026
  • Assault1,36151%
  • Sexual Offences37414%
  • Robbery743%
  • Break And Enter88633%

Development screen

Could a secondary dwelling be worth investigating?

small second home screening context Medium broad constraint context

Policy position

Official source access limited

The official state policy page could not be reliably re-verified automatically in the latest review. Treat this screen as preliminary and confirm the current planning and building requirements with the state source and local council.

Rental use: Review against the official Planning Victoria guidance and local building requirements before use.

Open official policy source

Separate houses

75.5%

Suburb share of occupied private dwellings recorded as separate houses.

5.0 pp below the state median

State median 80.5% · 693 valid suburbs

Residential-zone context

0.0%

Broad suburb sampling only; the property zoning and overlays can differ.

Near the state median

State median 0.0% · 690 valid suburbs

Rental households

27.3%

Demand context only; it does not establish permission to rent a secondary dwelling.

5.1 pp above the state median

State median 22.2% · 693 valid suburbs

Mapped hazards

bushfire moderate · flood moderate

The staged suburb layer indicates a broad-area constraint that needs address-level checking. The staged suburb layer indicates a broad-area constraint that needs address-level checking.

Approval pathway

Four checks, each with a different evidence threshold.

This is an investigation sequence, not a guarantee that every step applies or that approval will be granted.

  1. 01 Verify current source

    State policy position

    The current small second home position needs direct confirmation before relying on this screen.

  2. 02 Property dependent

    Planning pathway

    Confirm zoning, lot controls, overlays, setbacks, site coverage and whether planning approval is required.

  3. 03 Design dependent

    Building approval

    Confirm the building approval route after the design, site classifications, services and construction requirements are known.

  4. 04 Check separately

    Intended use

    Confirm long-term rental, short-stay or family-use rules separately from permission to construct the dwelling.

Property due diligence

Turn the suburb screen into a property checklist.

Every check starts unconfirmed. Progress stays in this browser and suburb evidence never clears an address-level requirement.

0evidence acquired
0evidence missing
0reviews due
0consultant questions

Active record: Carrum Downs unnamed property

0/14checked
0issues found

Site controls

Lot area and dimensions

Confirm title dimensions, usable site area and any minimum lot threshold.

Status for Lot area and dimensions
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Setbacks and site coverage

Test setbacks, private open space, landscaping and maximum site coverage against a concept plan.

Status for Setbacks and site coverage
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Slope and ground conditions

Check survey levels, soil classification, retaining needs and likely earthworks.

Status for Slope and ground conditions
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Title and planning

Zoning and overlays

Obtain current property-level zoning, overlays and applicable planning controls.

Status for Zoning and overlays
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Title, easements and covenants

Review the title for easements, covenants, restrictions and common property.

Status for Title, easements and covenants
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Services and access

Sewer and stormwater

Locate assets and connection points, then confirm capacity, clearances and discharge requirements.

Status for Sewer and stormwater
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Power, water and metering

Confirm service routes, upgrade needs and whether separate metering is permitted or practical.

Status for Power, water and metering
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Vehicle access and parking

Test driveway width, gradients, turning, parking and emergency access requirements.

Status for Vehicle access and parking
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Construction constraints

Bushfire exposure

Order an address-level bushfire assessment and determine any BAL construction response.

Status for Bushfire exposure
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Flood and overland flow

Obtain property flood information and check floor levels, flow paths and drainage constraints.

Status for Flood and overland flow
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Wind, corrosion and termite

Confirm site classifications that affect structural design, materials and durability.

Status for Wind, corrosion and termite
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Approval and use

Planning approval pathway

Confirm exemption, complying pathway or permit requirements with the responsible authority.

Status for Planning approval pathway
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Building approval and consultants

Identify required survey, design, engineering, energy, certification and inspection evidence.

Status for Building approval and consultants
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Rental and intended use

Confirm occupation, rental, short-stay and family-use rules plus insurance and tax implications.

Status for Rental and intended use
Evidence packMissing

Metadata only. QuickProperty does not store or upload the underlying document.

Carrum Downs, VIC 3201 · Local browser record

Investigation aid only. Confirm current planning, building, title, service and hazard requirements with qualified professionals and responsible authorities.

Building due diligence

Construction requirements can change by location.

The National Construction Code is the baseline. Local hazards and site classifications can change the required structure, materials, fixings, insulation and detailing.

Known here

SUBURB CONTEXT

Bushfire-prone designation

Moderate broad-area context

About 39.7% of the suburb is within Victoria's mapped Bushfire Prone Area.

May affect: External construction · Roof and wall systems · Openings, screens and decks

Flood and moisture context

Moderate broad-area context

About 18.5% of the suburb intersects VIC LSIO.

May affect: Floor levels and drainage · Water-resistant assemblies · Material durability

Check the property

ADDRESS + DESIGN

NCC climate zone

Check the property

Confirm the NCC climate zone used for the building design and energy provisions.

May affect: Insulation and glazing · Condensation control · Roof-space ventilation

Wind class and BAL

Site assessment required

A suburb layer cannot determine the site wind classification or Bushfire Attack Level.

May affect: Structure and tie-downs · Cladding and fixings · Openings and bushfire detailing

Corrosion and termite exposure

Check the property

Confirm marine or corrosive exposure and the applicable termite-management requirements.

May affect: Fasteners and connectors · Roofing and coatings · Termite management

This screen identifies investigation triggers, not building quality or property compliance. Confirm the address, design and current jurisdiction rules with the council, building surveyor or certifier, designer and engineer.

NCC 2022 Housing Provisions: how to use · NCC 2022 Volume Two and Housing Provisions

Bushfire-prone area

Partly designated ~39.7%
~39.7% of the suburb is within Victoria's designated Bushfire Prone Area

Share of the suburb within Victoria's gazetted Bushfire Prone Area (Vicmap, CC BY), point-sampled across the suburb. A Bushfire Prone Area is a planning designation that triggers the building code's bushfire construction provisions — it is not a graduated hazard rating or a property-level Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) assessment. Obtain a BAL assessment (AS 3959) for an individual property.

Flood exposure

Moderate exposure ~18.5%
~18.5% of the suburb sits within a mapped flood-hazard area

Estimated exposure to the official flood-hazard layer (VIC LSIO), point-sampled across the suburb. This shows how much of the suburb sits within mapped flood-planning areas — it is not a property-level flood certificate. Areas without a completed flood study may be unmapped. Check the local council's flood maps for an individual property.

Short-term rentals

13
active listings · ~0.6 per 1,000 residents
54%
entire homes (vs private rooms)
39%
run by multi-listing operators

Active Airbnb listings point-mapped to this suburb from Inside Airbnb (CC BY 4.0). Occupancy and revenue are estimates from Inside Airbnb's San Francisco model (review-rate proxy, minimum-stay assumption, occupancy capped at 70%) — they are gross, indicative, and not a guarantee of returns. Short-stay letting is subject to state and local regulation.

Planning zones

Dominant zone Residential (R1Z)
Public / Open space 36% Residential 35% Rural / Green wedge 15% Industrial 14% Commercial / Mixed 1%
Residential density: Standard

Land-use mix estimated by point-sampling the suburb against Vicmap Planning scheme-zone polygons (CC BY 4.0). This is a suburb-level snapshot of planning zones, not a parcel-level zoning certificate or development advice. Check the relevant planning scheme for an individual property.

Growth outlook · Frankston LGA

Dwellings
+13%
58,890 → 66,550
+7,660 dwellings
Population
+10.9%
140,810 → 156,100
Households
+15.8%
56,710 → 65,650

LGA-level official projection (Victoria in Future 2023, DTP). Indicative of the wider council area, not a suburb-level forecast.

Population outlook

22,390 people · 202224,299 by 2032 (+8.5%)

ABS population projection (2022 base) for the Carrum Downs SA2 statistical area — the finest official projection grain available; suburb-level projections do not exist.

Full data detail Census · ATO · ABS · state datasets
Carrum Downs VIC — Property Data and Demographics

Carrum Downs (postcode 3201) is a sizeable suburb in Victoria within the Frankston local government area. The area has roughly 21,976 residents and a blend of families and working-age professionals, with a median age of 36. Households earn a median income of $86K per year, with an average household size of 2.5 people. Recent annual estimates show population movement staying broadly stable across the broader catchment, with population growth running at +0.7% year-on-year at the LGA level. VIC employment has moved +0.8% year-on-year in the official ABS Labour Force trend series, which provides the broader jobs backdrop for this suburb. VIC also had 41 Commonwealth-backed major projects under construction, 18 underway, and 24 in planning as at 2025-09-01, which is useful as a broader delivery backdrop rather than a suburb-specific project count. The most common occupations are technicians & trades, professionals, clerical & administrative. Employment in the area leans toward healthcare and construction. The top ancestries reported are English, Australian, Scottish.

The median house price in Carrum Downs is $720,000, having risen modestly by 0.5% over the past year. Units have a median price of $601,000 (+3.5% YoY). The current median weekly rent is $560. This gives a gross rental yield of approximately 4.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,733.

Carrum Downs is served by 4 schools, including 3 primary, 1 secondary. The average ICSEA score is 1003, which is around the national average of 1,000. Public transport access includes 1 rail station, 104 bus stops. The crime rate in the Frankston LGA is higher than average at 11,751 incidents per 100,000 population.

From an investment perspective, Gross rental yield sits at around 4.0% (moderate yield). Property prices are near the state median ($720K/$850K). The price-to-income ratio of 8.4x is considered moderate. House prices have moved +0.5% year-on-year. Population growth of +0.7% year-on-year points to stable demand fundamentals. Building approvals have changed +0% year-on-year, indicating steady development activity.

Market & money
Investment signalsHeuristics
Rental Yield4.0%· Moderate Yield
Price vs State$720K/$850K· Near Median
Affordability8.4x· Moderate
Price Momentum+0.5%· Stable
Pop. Growth+0.7%· Stable
Development+0%· Steady
InvestmentVIC
Mortgage · mth$1,733
Rent · wk(Census)$370
Market rent · wk(Sep 2025)$560
Gross yield2.7%
Price / income8.4x
Sales vol (latest Q)(2025-Q4)83
Population growth · Frankston LGAABS ERP
Population (2025)145,369
5-year growth+0.4% CAGR
YoY change+0.7%
20012025
Development · Frankston LGAABS Approvals
Approvals (2026)767
Houses 26%Units 74%
YoY change+0%
Employment · Frankston LGASALM
Unemployment (Dec-25)5.1%
YoY change-0.4pp
Dec-10Dec-25
Property investors · Postcode 3201ATO
Negatively geared5.4%
731 of filers
Avg rental loss$7,694/yr
Landlords (rental income)1,109
Reported capital gains580
People & prosperity
DemographicsCensus 21
Population21,976
Median age36
Household size2.5
HH income · wk$1,658
Personal income · wk$817
Persons / bedroom0.8
IncomeATO 22-23
Median income$60,607
Mean income$65,267
Earners14,574
YoY change+8.3%
SEIFA indexABS
Advantage (IRSAD)4/10
Education (IEO)3/10
Economic (IER)4/10
Disadvantage (IRSD)3/10
Income momentumCensus 16→21
HH income · wk$1,339 → $1,658
Change+23.8%
vs VIC median+0.3 pp
Median rent+13.8%
stablevs VIC 2016–21
Area & amenity
Local amenitiesOSM
Supermarkets4
Pharmacies4
GP / clinics7
Fuel stations7
Cafes & dining34
aldi1
coles1
iga1
woolworths1
TransportGTFS
Rail stations1
Bus stops104
Carrum Downs Police Station/Ballarto Rd
Hospitals · Frankston LGAAIHW
Public3
Private3
Frankston Hospitalpublic
Frankston Public Surgical Centrepublic
Golf Links Road Rehabilitation Centrepublic
Bayside Day Procedure and Specialist Centreprivate
Peninsula Private Hospital Victoriaprivate
St John of God Frankston Rehabilitation Hospitalprivate
Aged care · Frankston LGAGEN
Facilities15
Residential places1,368
Forest Lodge Residential Aged Care180 places
Langwarrin Community Aged Care161 places
Skye Lodge140 places
MiCare Avondrust Lodge120 places · in suburb
Vasey RSL Care Frankston South120 places
Baptcare Peninsula View Community106 places
+9 more in Frankston LGA
Childcare · Frankston LGAACECQA
Services107
Approved places7,955
Exceeding NQS25
Hope Frankston Heights174 places
Hope Carrum Downs171 places · in suburb
TeamKids - Woodlands Primary160 places
Explorers Early Learning - Frankston North142 places
Guardian Childcare & Education Langwarrin142 places
Guardian Childcare & Education Langwarrin South142 places
+101 more in Frankston LGA
Shortlist workspace

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Current status
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Sources & freshness
Strong evidence

Carrum Downs has enough direct local evidence for a first-pass decision.

QuickProperty mixes release files, Census baselines, and matched local services on this page. Read the status panel before treating every metric as equally fresh.

PRICE POSTURE
Manual release files still matter here.

DataVic-discovered annual suburb price workbooks parsed into suburb prices. Quarterly VIC resources are discovered and cached, but not yet used as current-price anchors.

RENT POSTURE
Rent is using a state market dataset when available.

Use current rent as a starting signal, not as a fixed underwriting truth.

SERVICE POSTURE
Service coverage is matched locally, not inferred nationally.

Schools, transport, and hospitals are useful as presence signals, but they still have different source cadences.

Data status
Property prices
VIC Property Sales Report · 2025-Q4 · DataVic-discovered annual suburb price workbooks parsed into suburb prices. Quarterly VIC resources are discovered and cached, but not yet used as current-price anchors.
medium stability · mixed acquisition · every update · quarterly
Available
Market rent
Homes Victoria · Sep 2025 · State market dataset
medium stability · automated · every update · quarterly
Available
Crime
VIC Crime Statistics Agency · Year ending Mar 2026 · Area-level release dataset
Available
Schools
ACARA 2025 · 4 schools matched
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Hospitals
AIHW · No linked local hospital coverage
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Missing
Transport
GTFS feeds · 105 matched stops/stations
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Available
Population growth
ABS ERP · 2025 · Annual estimate series
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Building approvals
ABS Building Approvals · 2026 · Annual release series
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Available means a direct local dataset is linked. Verify means coverage exists but freshness or precision is weaker, such as ABS price fallback, Census rent fallback, or low-confidence hospital matching.

Carrum Downs FAQ

Common questions
  1. What LGA is Carrum Downs in?

    Carrum Downs is in the Frankston Local Government Area, VIC, postcode 3201. Council-level context for Frankston LGA (suburb mix, population, rent, and price coverage) is available on the QuickProperty LGA page.

  2. What is the median house price in Carrum Downs?

    The current median house price in Carrum Downs, VIC is $720K, based on the latest available sales data from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region.

  3. What is the typical weekly rent in Carrum Downs?

    The median weekly rent in Carrum Downs is $560/wk, based on the current market rent dataset. The current rent signal is income-stretched rent market.

  4. What does the rent signal say about Carrum Downs?

    Income-stretched rent market: Weekly rent screens at about 48% of annual income. Use this as a suburb screening signal before comparing candidates or modelling a purchase; the matching rent ranking can provide broader market context.

  5. Is Carrum Downs a good investment?

    QuickProperty's investment signals for Carrum Downs show: Moderate Yield, Near Median, Moderate. These are computed from price, rent, income, and population data — not an opaque score.

  6. Where does QuickProperty get its data for Carrum Downs?

    Property prices come from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region. Demographics are from ABS Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA. Crime statistics are from state police agencies. Transport data is sourced from GTFS feeds.

  7. How often is the Carrum Downs data updated?

    Property prices update quarterly. RBA macro indicators update with each deploy. Demographics are from Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA 2025.