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Suburb profile · Manawatu-Whanganui · NZ

Kaitoke-Fordell NZ

Kaitoke-Fordell is in Manawatu-Whanganui, New Zealand, with population 2,061.

The read

Livability-led

There are enough weaker signals here that you should expect trade-offs, not a clean local story. Compare it directly with stronger nearby suburbs before treating it as a preferred option.

$505/wk
1/01/2020 → 1/01/2026 · 9 periods
Tenancy Services · 1/01/2026
$505
$240
1/01/20201/01/2026
Why it fits

School coverage gives the page a stronger family/livability signal.

Median rent
$505/wk
Income-stretched rent market
D2 vs NZ
Population
2,061
2K local footprint
D5 vs NZ
Income
$32K/yr
Median personal income
D2 vs NZ
NZDep
Decile 5
Mid-range deprivation
D5 vs NZ
Schools
3
matched school context

Area prices & affordability

Median sale price
$482K
+22.3% over 5yr
3.2%YoY
Lower quartile
$394K
Entry-level price
House Price Index
5,166
QV-based HPI
5.9%5yr
Income to buy
7.7x
Years of median income
Annual sales
800
Transactions, TA

Mortgage serviceability

at the 5.69% 2-year fixed rate
Monthly repayment
$2,236/mo
20% deposit, 30-year P&I
Repayment burden
43%
of gross household income
Stress level
Stretched
<30% comfortable · >45% severe
Years to deposit
10.2 yrs
20% deposit at 15% savings

Monthly repayment by fixed term

Floating · 6.15%
$2,349
1-year fixed · 5.26%
$2,132
2-year fixed · 5.69%
$2,236
3-year fixed · 5.86%
$2,277

A territorial-authority estimate: the Whanganui District median sale price on a 20% deposit and 30-year loan, against the TA median household income implied by HUD's income-to-buy ratio, at RBNZ new-mortgage rates. A market-wide guide, not a Kaitoke-Fordell-specific or borrower-specific figure.

Price trend

1yr -1.0%5yr -3.7%
QV House Price Index (Jan 2007 = 1000)

QV House Price Index for the Whanganui District territorial authority (monthly, Jan 2007 = 1000). A valuation-based index of price movement over time — distinct from the actual median sale price above.

Years of median household income to buy

Figures are for the Whanganui District territorial authority (as at 2026-03). New Zealand has no free suburb-level sale-price series, so these are TA-wide medians from HUD Local Housing Statistics (LINZ District Valuation Roll + Stats NZ) — a market backdrop for Kaitoke-Fordell, not a Kaitoke-Fordell-specific sale price.

Rent trend depth

Rent cycle positionRents at their peak
Low · 2020Peak · 2026

At / near its highest median rent on record

Rent growth (compound)3-yr +9.9%/yr

Rent trend is derived from MBIE tenancy-bond medians and excludes suburbs with too few bonds to be reliable.

Personal income

$32K personal · yr-12% vs Manawatu-Whanganui suburb median
Personal income distribution (Census 2023 · annual)
$10,000 or less
375
$10,001-$20,000
195
$20,001-$30,000
243
$30,001-$50,000
279
$50,001-$70,000
249
$70,001-$100,000
207
$100,001 or more
132

Median individual income. NZ has no suburb-level household-income or sale-price data, so this is a personal-income benchmark, not a household-affordability measure. Distribution covers people aged 15+ with stated income; counts are randomly rounded to base 3.

Housing stock and tenure

Home ownership over three censuses+6.6pp since 2013
2013
82% owned
2018
84% owned
2023
88% owned

9.7% of private dwellings were unoccupied on 2023 census night (holiday homes, empty rentals, and vacant stock).

Dwelling condition (occupied dwellings, self-reported)

15% damp (-4pp vs 2018) and 14% with visible mould larger than A4 (-0pp vs 2018).

Investor-specific data (gearing, investor concentration) is not published for NZ suburbs — the tenure trend above is the available investor signal.

Population outlook

48,600 people · 202349,800 by 2033 (+2.5%)

Stats NZ subnational projection (2023 base, medium series) for Whanganui District — the finest official projection grain available; suburb-level projections do not exist.

Crime

Rate · per 100k6,114
Total incidents2,912· 2026-05
  • Assault44438%
  • Burglary65155%
  • Robbery333%
  • Sexual Assault524%

Natural hazards

Earthquake exposure
Moderate
Proximity to active faults
Nearest active fault
9.5 km
North Whanganui trace

Earthquake exposure is the distance from Kaitoke-Fordell's centre to the nearest mapped active fault (GNS Science NZ Active Faults Database) — an area estimate, not a site-specific seismic assessment. NZ's full ground-shaking model (NSHM) is not available as a queryable map layer.

Short-term rentals

14
active listings · ~6.8 per 1,000 residents
71%
entire homes (vs private rooms)
36%
run by multi-listing operators
Investment view Estimated
$162
median nightly (entire home)
59%
estimated occupancy
$35,451
estimated annual revenue (gross)

Active Airbnb listings point-mapped to this suburb from Inside Airbnb (CC BY 4.0). Occupancy and revenue are estimates from Inside Airbnb's San Francisco model (review-rate proxy, minimum-stay assumption, occupancy capped at 70%) — they are gross, indicative, and not a guarantee of returns. Short-stay letting is subject to state and local regulation.

Schools

Total3
Students284
State3
  • Fordell SchoolFull Primary · State
  • Kaitoke School (Wanganui)Full Primary · State
  • Okoia SchoolFull Primary · State

Livability

54/ 100 livability index

Top 46% most liveable of 1,902New Zealand suburbs.

Peer distributionstronger than 54% of New Zealand districts
WeakerTypicalStronger
Everyday access23
Public transport0
Schools & hospitals89

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

Suburb-level access-density index (not an address-level walk-time score), normalised within New Zealand suburbs. Method based on the Urban Liveability Index (Higgs et al. 2019) and Walk Score — three equal-weighted domains combined with an imbalance penalty.

Investment grade

Bgrade · 78/100 · top 22% of 65New Zealand districts
Peer distributionstronger than 78% of New Zealand districts
WeakerTypicalStronger
Capital growth55
Rental yield88
Stability69

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

District-level grade across New Zealand territorial authorities, combining 5-year price growth, rental yield (district median rent vs district median price), and stability (price-to-income level + affordability trajectory) via the same three-pillar method with an imbalance penalty. New Zealand has no free suburb-level prices, so this reflects your area's territorial authority. Within-New-Zealand relative, indicative only — not financial advice.

Stronger alternatives nearby

Cheaper to rent

lower weekly rent · cross-TA

Higher income

personal median · cross-TA

Less deprived

lower NZDep decile · cross-TA

Alternatives are similar-rent suburbs (0.6–1.6x this suburb's median rent) in other territorial authorities that exceed it on the named metric. Indicative — not financial advice.

Building activity

Latest consents
11
6 houses · 5 units
8.3%YoY D8 vs NZ

Employment

Employed residents
1,029
Was 996 in 2018
3.3%vs 2018 D5 vs NZ

Full data detail

Kaitoke-Fordell Manawatu-Whanganui — Property Data and Demographics

Kaitoke-Fordell is a small suburb in Manawatu-Whanganui with a population of 2,061 and a median age of 41. Median personal income is $32K per year. The main ethnic groups are European, Māori, Pacific Peoples. Manawatu-Whanganui population estimates moved +0.2% in the year ended June 2025, after moving +0.9% in 2024, which should be read as a broader regional movement backdrop rather than suburb-level migration precision. The resident employment base moved from 996 in 2018 to 1,029 in 2023 (+3.3%), which should be read as a census-to-census employment backdrop rather than a live jobs series. Te Waihanga's December 2025 Pipeline snapshot tracked over 12,000 NZ infrastructure initiatives, with more than 2,700 under construction and transport taking 52% of projected 2026 pipeline spend, which should be read as a broader national delivery backdrop rather than a suburb-specific project list.

Median weekly rent in Kaitoke-Fordell is $505 (505 houses, 0 units). This represents approximately 81% of median weekly personal income.

Livability indicators for Kaitoke-Fordell: NZDep decile 5 (moderate deprivation); 3 schools with avg EQI 482.

In 2026, Kaitoke-Fordell recorded 11 building approvals (6 houses, 5 units), down 8.3% year-on-year.

Market & money
Livability signalsHeuristics
Rent Affordability81% Stretched
School QualityEQI 482 Below Average
DeprivationDecile 5· Moderate
Development-8%· Steady
Rental marketMBIE
Median rent · wk(1/01/2026)$505
House · wk$505
Rent / income81.3%
Lodgements12
DevelopmentStats NZ
Consents (2026)11
Houses 55%Units 45%
YoY change-8.3%
People & prosperity
DemographicsCensus 23
Population2,061
Median age41
Household size
HH income · yr
Personal income · yr$32,300
Deprivation (NZDep)NZDep23
Less deprived5/10
NZDep score980

1 = least deprived · 10 = most deprived

EthnicityCensus 23
European1,776
Māori444
Pacific Peoples57
Asian42
Top industriesCensus 23
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing156
Construction111
Public Administration and Safety108
Health Care and Social Assistance96
Manufacturing93
Area & amenity
Local amenitiesOSM
Supermarkets0
Pharmacies0
GP / clinics0
Fuel stations0
Cafes & dining1
Hospitals · Whanganui DistrictMoH
Whanganui HospitalPublic Hospital
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Current status
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Sources & freshness
Strong evidence

Kaitoke-Fordell has enough direct local evidence for a first-pass decision.

NZ suburb pages combine Stats NZ, MBIE, MoE, GTFS, and pinned service coverage. The key difference is that some items are direct feeds, while others are fallback or snapshot layers.

RENT POSTURE
Rent is using MBIE bond data when present.

Treat current rent as a decision input, not as a guaranteed market quote.

HOSPITAL POSTURE
Hospital coverage comes from an official pinned snapshot.

This is a trusted coverage layer, but it is still a pinned snapshot rather than a live facility API.

TRANSPORT POSTURE
Transport is feed-based and depends on GTFS bundle coverage.

It is good for stop presence and local network context, but not a guarantee that every operator or schedule is equally current.

Data status
Weekly rent
MBIE rental bond data · 1/01/2026 · Bond market dataset
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Schools
MoE school directory · 3 schools matched
stable source · automated · every update · nightly
Available
Hospitals
Pinned Health NZ public hospital snapshot · No linked local hospital coverage
medium stability · mixed acquisition · snapshot · mixed
Missing
Transport
NZ GTFS bundle · No matched local transport stops
medium stability · mixed acquisition · snapshot · mixed
Missing
Building consents
Stats NZ building consents CSV · 2026 · Annual release series
Available
Demographic baseline
Stats NZ Census 2023 · Population, income, and demographic baseline
stable source · manual file · snapshot · census-cycle
Available
Available means a direct local source is linked. Verify means the page is using a weaker fallback or coverage-only snapshot, especially Census rent fallback or pinned hospital coverage.

Kaitoke-Fordell FAQ

Common questions
  1. What is the typical weekly rent in Kaitoke-Fordell?

    The median weekly rent in Kaitoke-Fordell is $505/wk, based on the MBIE market rent dataset. The current rent signal is income-stretched rent market.

  2. What does the rent signal say about Kaitoke-Fordell?

    Income-stretched rent market: Weekly rent screens at about 81% of annual income. Use this as a suburb screening signal before comparing candidates; the matching rent ranking can provide broader market context.

  3. What is the livability profile for Kaitoke-Fordell?

    QuickProperty's livability signals for Kaitoke-Fordell show: Stretched, Below Average, Moderate. These are based on rent affordability, school EQI, NZDep deprivation index, and transport access.

  4. Where does QuickProperty get its data for Kaitoke-Fordell?

    Housing data comes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Demographics are from Stats NZ Census 2023. Schools data uses the Ministry of Education Equity Index (EQI). The deprivation score uses NZDep2018. Transport data is sourced from GTFS feeds.

  5. How often is the Kaitoke-Fordell data updated?

    RBNZ macro data updates with each deploy. Demographics are from NZ Census 2023. School EQI scores are from the Ministry of Education latest release.