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Suburb profile ·Shellharbour LGA · NSW ·2528

Lake Illawarra NSW 2528

Lake Illawarra is in Shellharbour LGA, NSW, postcode 2528, with population 3,288.

The read

Livability-led

The page has enough signal to be useful, but the story is mixed rather than decisive. Use compare mode to pressure-test it against stronger nearby options, then use the calculator if it still makes the shortlist.

$612/wk
Falling
-5.8% YoY
Mar 2025 → May 2026 · 15 periods
NSW Fair Trading · postcode 2528 · May 2026
$680
$590
Mar 2025May 2026
Why it fits

Transport coverage adds a practical access signal.

Median house
$893K
House median, latest period
3.5%YoY D5 vs AU
Median rent
$612/wk
Rent context available
5.8%YoY D10 vs AU
Gross yield
3.6%
Below investor band
D10 vs AU
Population
3,288
3K local footprint
D9 vs AU
Schools
2
Matched school context
D8 vs AU
Drive to city
1h 36m
100.9 km to Sydney CBD · free-flow
Solar
3,114
268 added 12mo · 18MW
Price cycleAt its peak
LowPeak

At / near its all-time high

See trend depth →

Price history

Trend & investor depth

Cycle positionAt its peak
Low · 2007Peak · 2025

At / near its all-time high

Price growth (compound)% per year
3-yr
+6.0%
5-yr
+11.0%
10-yr
+7.1%
Indicative cashflow-$392/wk (-$20,400/yr) · interest-only @ 6.2%, 80% LVR
Market turnover4.2% of homes traded/yr (65 sales · -11% vs 3-yr avg)
Rent stabilitytypical — rents vary ±4.5% around trend (short window, 15 pts)
Value vs advantage+61% vs suburbs of similar SEIFA advantage (decile 1)

Indicative cashflow is interest-only and excludes tax — use the calculator for a full projection. Turnover divides recorded sales by an estimated household count (population over average household size).

Investment grade

Bgrade · 63/100 · top 37% of 3,605AU suburbs
Peer distributionstronger than 63% of AU suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Capital growth48
Rental yield69
Stability41
Volatility-12.6ppCycle-2.0

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer · stability drivers signed (+ = steadier)

Relative grade across Australian suburbs, combining qp's capital-growth (multi-year CAGR + cycle timing), rental-yield, and stability (price volatility + cycle + affordability) metrics via a three-pillar property-scoring method with an imbalance penalty. Within-Australia relative, indicative only — not financial advice.

Investor profile

Who invests in Lake Illawarra

Owner-occupied 50%Rented 50%
Investor activityATO
Negatively geared4.6%
569 of 1,280 landlords
Avg rental loss$7,304/yr
Landlords (rental income)1,280
Reported capital gains728
Investor exposure index(moderate vs national)74.2/100
The read

Renter-heavy market

48% of homes here are owner-occupied and 48% rented, with 5% of landlords negatively geared.

What to check

48% rented — renter-heavy areas turn over faster and are more exposed to rate moves and investor sentiment. Social housing is 15% of dwellings — check tenant mix and resale demand.

ABS Census 2021 tenure (G37), ATO postcode rental statistics, and QuickProperty's investor-exposure index. Owner-occupied = owned outright + with a mortgage.

Mortgage affordability

92%
of household income to service a new loan
21.4 yrs
to save a 20% deposit
Severe
housing-stress band
Rent vs buyRenting cheaper

New-loan repayment $4,281/mo vs median rent $2,652/mo (+61% · +$376/wk)

If rates move

At 4.0%: $3,409/mo (-872) · at 6.0% (current): $4,281/mo · at 8.0%: $5,239/mo (+958)

Assumes a 20% deposit and a 30-year principal-and-interest loan at the current RBA new owner-occupier variable rate, against median weekly household income (ABS Census 2021). Stress bands follow the 30% / 45%-of-income thresholds used in ANZ-CoreLogic and AIHW reporting. Rent vs buy compares that repayment with the suburb's median advertised rent; it excludes rates, insurance, maintenance and deposit opportunity cost.

Stronger alternatives nearby

Higher yield

similar price · cross-LGA

Stronger 5-yr growth

similar price · cross-LGA

More affordable

lower price-to-income

Alternatives are similar-priced suburbs (0.7–1.4x this suburb's median) in other council areas that exceed it on the named metric. Indicative — not financial advice.

Affordability

Buying
16.1x
median home price as a multiple of annual household income
Stretched
Renting
57%
median weekly rent as a share of gross household income (the 30% rule)
High stress

Owners with a mortgage repay a median of $1,733/mo, while renters pay about $2,652/mo — renting runs $919/mo higher on these medians.

Median price
$893K
Household income · yr
$56K
Median rent · wk
$612
Owner mortgage · mo
$1,733
Gross yield
3.6%

Household income

$56K household · yr-32.5% vs NSW suburb median
Personal
$32K
Family
$75K
Household
$56K
Household income distribution (ABS Census 2021 · weekly)8% could service the median house
Under $300
77
$300-649
324
$650-999
253
$1,000-1,499
236
$1,500-1,999
154
$2,000-2,999
189
$3,000-3,999
74
$4,000+
62

Serviceability line: a household needs about $3,293/wk to hold a new loan on the median house at 30% of income (20% deposit, 30-year P&I, current RBA rate).

At the median asking rent, about 77% of households here would spend more than 30% of income on rent (rent stress line: $2,040/wk income).

Housing stock and tenure

Tenure (1,427 households)15.1% social housing
Owned outright
27%
Owned with mortgage
21%
Rented
48%
Dwelling structure7.4% of dwellings unoccupied on census night
Separate house
50%
Townhouse / semi
27%
Flat / apartment
22%

Getting to work: 76% drive, 2% public transport, 1% walk or cycle, 18% worked from home (2021 Census, taken during COVID-era work-from-home arrangements).

Schools

Total2
Avg ICSEA924
Students719
Government2
  • Lake Illawarra South Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 954
  • Lake Illawarra High SchoolSecondary · Government · ICSEA 894

Livability

58/ 100 livability index

Top 42% most liveable of 4,565Australian suburbs.

Peer distributionstronger than 58% of Australian suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Everyday access19
Public transport (28 stops)65
Schools & hospitals56

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

Suburb-level access-density index (not an address-level walk-time score), normalised within Australian suburbs. Method based on the Urban Liveability Index (Higgs et al. 2019) and Walk Score — three equal-weighted domains combined with an imbalance penalty.

Crime April 2025 - March 2026
2,345
2,875 per 100k
D4 vs AU

Crime

Rate · per 100k2,875
Total incidents2,345· April 2025 - March 2026
  • Assault53354%
  • Sexual Offences22523%
  • Robbery101%
  • Break And Enter21422%

Bushfire exposure

Low exposure ~9.3%
~9.3% of the suburb is Bush Fire Prone Land

Estimated exposure to NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land (CC BY), point-sampled across the suburb. This shows how much of the suburb sits within the official hazard layer — it is not a Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) rating or a property-level assessment. Obtain a BAL assessment (AS 3959) for an individual property.

Planning zones

Dominant zone Public Recreation
Residential 53% Public / Open space 33% Other 3% Industrial 1%
Residential density: Standard

Land-use mix estimated by point-sampling the suburb against NSW EPI Land Zoning polygons (CC BY 4.0). This is a suburb-level snapshot of planning zones, not a parcel-level zoning certificate or development advice. Check the relevant planning scheme for an individual property.

Population outlook

20,348 people · 202219,863 by 2032 (-2.4%)

ABS population projection (2022 base) for the Warilla SA2 statistical area — the finest official projection grain available; suburb-level projections do not exist.

Full data detail Census · ATO · ABS · state datasets
Lake Illawarra NSW — Property Data and Demographics

Lake Illawarra is a smaller residential area in New South Wales within the Shellharbour local government area (postcode 2528). The area has roughly 3,288 residents and a settled mid-life population, with a median age of 43. Households earn a median income of $56K per year, with an average household size of 2.1 people. Recent annual estimates show population movement into the broader catchment, with population growth running at +1.9% year-on-year at the LGA level. NSW employment has moved +1.2% year-on-year in the official ABS Labour Force trend series, which provides the broader jobs backdrop for this suburb. NSW also had 35 Commonwealth-backed major projects under construction, 17 underway, and 67 in planning as at 2025-09-01, which is useful as a broader delivery backdrop rather than a suburb-specific project count. The most common occupations are technicians & trades, community & personal service, professionals. Employment in the area leans toward healthcare and construction. The top ancestries reported are English, Australian, Scottish.

The median house price in Lake Illawarra is $893,000, having increased by 3.5% over the past year. Units have a median price of $703,000 (+0.8% YoY). The current median weekly rent is $612. This gives a gross rental yield of approximately 3.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,733.

Lake Illawarra is served by 2 schools, including 1 primary, 1 secondary. The average ICSEA score is 924, which is below the national average of 1,000. Public transport access includes 28 bus stops. The crime rate in the Shellharbour LGA is below average at 2,875 incidents per 100,000 population.

From an investment perspective, Gross rental yield sits at around 3.6% (moderate yield). Property prices sit below the state median ($893K/$1.5M), which can point to relative value. The price-to-income ratio of 16.1x is considered stretched. House prices have moved +3.5% year-on-year. Population growth of +1.9% year-on-year points to stable demand fundamentals. Building approvals have changed +0% year-on-year, indicating steady development activity.

Market & money
Investment signalsHeuristics
Rental Yield3.6%· Moderate Yield
Price vs State$893K/$1.5M Below Median
Affordability16.1x Stretched
Price Momentum+3.5%· Stable
Pop. Growth+1.9%· Stable
Development+0%· Steady
InvestmentNSW
Mortgage · mth$1,733
Rent · wk(Census)$328
Market rent · wk(2026-05)$612
Gross yield1.9%
Price / income16.1x
Sales vol (latest Q)(2025-Q4)8
Population growth · Shellharbour LGAABS ERP
Population (2025)83,228
5-year growth+2.1% CAGR
YoY change+1.9%
20012025
Development · Shellharbour LGAABS Approvals
Approvals (2026)562
Houses 67%Units 33%
YoY change+0%
Employment · Shellharbour LGASALM
Unemployment (Dec-25)6.8%
YoY change-0.2pp
Dec-10Dec-25
Property investors · Postcode 2528ATO
Negatively geared4.6%
569 of filers
Avg rental loss$7,304/yr
Landlords (rental income)1,280
Reported capital gains728
People & prosperity
DemographicsCensus 21
Population3,288
Median age43
Household size2.1
HH income · wk$1,069
Personal income · wk$608
Persons / bedroom0.8
SEIFA indexABS
Advantage (IRSAD)1/10
Education (IEO)2/10
Economic (IER)1/10
Disadvantage (IRSD)1/10
Income momentumCensus 16→21
HH income · wk$898 → $1,069
Change+19%
vs NSW median-1.6 pp
Median rent+17.1%
stablevs NSW 2016–21
Area & amenity
Local amenitiesOSM
Supermarkets0
Pharmacies0
GP / clinics0
Fuel stations1
Cafes & dining1
TransportGTFS
Bus stops28
Hospitals · Shellharbour LGAAIHW
Public1
Private1
Shellharbour Hospitalpublic
Shellharbour Private Hospitalprivate
Aged care · Shellharbour LGAGEN
Facilities5
Residential places571
Warrigal Mount Terry151 places
Warrigal Care Albion Park Rail149 places
Warrigal Care Shell Cove131 places
Uniting Elanora Shellharbour100 places
Warrigal Care Mt Warrigal40 places
Childcare · Shellharbour LGAACECQA
Services60
Approved places3,279
Exceeding NQS20
The Grove Academy - Shell Cove142 places
Little Zak's Academy Shellharbour138 places
Junior Einsteins Nurturing Centre - Shell Heights125 places
MindChamps Early Learning @ Shellharbour120 places
CatholicCare OSHC- St Paul's Albion Park107 places
Little Peoples Early Learning Centre Oak Flats106 places
+54 more in Shellharbour LGA
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Current status
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Sources & freshness
Strong evidence

Lake Illawarra has enough direct local evidence for a first-pass decision.

QuickProperty mixes release files, Census baselines, and matched local services on this page. Read the status panel before treating every metric as equally fresh.

PRICE POSTURE
NSW price medians are parser-guarded official records.

Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records

RENT POSTURE
Rent is using a state market dataset when available.

Use current rent as a starting signal, not as a fixed underwriting truth.

SERVICE POSTURE
Service coverage is matched locally, not inferred nationally.

Schools, transport, and hospitals are useful as presence signals, but they still have different source cadences.

Data status
Property prices
NSW Valuer General · 2025-Q4 · Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records
medium stability · automated · every update · weekly
Available
Market rent
NSW Fair Trading · 2026-05 · State market dataset
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Crime
BOCSAR · April 2025 - March 2026 · Area-level release dataset
medium stability · automated · every update · release-based
Available
Schools
ACARA 2025 · 2 schools matched
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Hospitals
AIHW · No linked local hospital coverage
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Missing
Transport
GTFS feeds · 28 matched stops/stations
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Available
Population growth
ABS ERP · 2025 · Annual estimate series
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Building approvals
ABS Building Approvals · 2026 · Annual release series
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Available means a direct local dataset is linked. Verify means coverage exists but freshness or precision is weaker, such as ABS price fallback, Census rent fallback, or low-confidence hospital matching.

Lake Illawarra FAQ

Common questions
  1. What LGA is Lake Illawarra in?

    Lake Illawarra is in the Shellharbour Local Government Area, NSW, postcode 2528. Council-level context for Shellharbour LGA (suburb mix, population, rent, and price coverage) is available on the QuickProperty LGA page.

  2. What is the median house price in Lake Illawarra?

    The current median house price in Lake Illawarra, NSW is $893K, based on the latest available sales data from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region.

  3. What is the typical weekly rent in Lake Illawarra?

    The median weekly rent in Lake Illawarra is $612/wk, based on the current market rent dataset. The current rent signal is rent context available.

  4. What does the rent signal say about Lake Illawarra?

    Rent context available: Lake Illawarra has usable rent context. Use this as a suburb screening signal before comparing candidates or modelling a purchase; the matching rent ranking can provide broader market context.

  5. Is Lake Illawarra a good investment?

    QuickProperty's investment signals for Lake Illawarra show: Moderate Yield, Below Median, Stretched. These are computed from price, rent, income, and population data — not an opaque score.

  6. Where does QuickProperty get its data for Lake Illawarra?

    Property prices come from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region. Demographics are from ABS Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA. Crime statistics are from state police agencies. Transport data is sourced from GTFS feeds.

  7. How often is the Lake Illawarra data updated?

    Property prices update quarterly. RBA macro indicators update with each deploy. Demographics are from Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA 2025.