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Suburb profile ·Shellharbour LGA · NSW ·2528

Warilla NSW 2528

Warilla is in Shellharbour LGA, NSW, postcode 2528, with population 6,226.

The read

Livability-led

There are enough stretched or weaker signals here that you should assume trade-offs rather than a clean story. Use compare mode to see whether the downside is price, local quality, or weaker momentum before treating it as a target suburb.

$612/wk
Falling
-5.8% YoY
Mar 2025 → May 2026 · 15 periods
NSW Fair Trading · postcode 2528 · May 2026
$680
$590
Mar 2025May 2026
Why it fits

School coverage gives the page a stronger family/livability signal. Transport coverage adds a practical access signal.

Median house
$815K
House median, latest period
3.6%YoY D5 vs AU
Median rent
$612/wk
Income-stretched rent market
5.8%YoY D10 vs AU
Gross yield
3.9%
Below investor band
D10 vs AU
Population
6,226
6K local footprint
D10 vs AU
Schools
4
Matched school context
D10 vs AU
Drive to city
1h 36m
100.9 km to Sydney CBD · free-flow
Solar
3,114
268 added 12mo · 18MW
Price cycleRising
LowPeak

3.6% below peak · 215.9% above its low

See trend depth →

Price history

Houses to Q1'26 · Units to Q2'26 — house and unit medians are released on separate cycles, so their latest period can differ.

Trend & investor depth

Cycle positionRising
Low · 2007Peak · 2025

3.6% below peak · 215.9% above its low

Price growth (compound)% per year
3-yr
+4.0%
5-yr
+2.8%
10-yr
+5.3%
Affordability trajectoryWorsening
Price
+6.6%/yr
Income
+4.3%/yr

Growth in median price vs median household income — worsening — prices outgrowing incomes.

Indicative cashflow-$318/wk (-$16,556/yr) · interest-only @ 6.2%, 80% LVR
Market turnover1.7% of homes traded/yr (47 sales · -41% vs 3-yr avg)
Rent stabilitytypical — rents vary ±4.5% around trend (short window, 15 pts)
Value vs advantage+47% vs suburbs of similar SEIFA advantage (decile 1)

Indicative cashflow is interest-only and excludes tax — use the calculator for a full projection. Turnover divides recorded sales by an estimated household count (population over average household size).

Investment grade

Bgrade · 70/100 · top 30% of 3,605AU suburbs
Peer distributionstronger than 70% of AU suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Capital growth39
Rental yield76
Stability85
Volatility-10.0ppCycle+2.0Affordability-1.5

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer · stability drivers signed (+ = steadier)

Relative grade across Australian suburbs, combining qp's capital-growth (multi-year CAGR + cycle timing), rental-yield, and stability (price volatility + cycle + affordability) metrics via a three-pillar property-scoring method with an imbalance penalty. Within-Australia relative, indicative only — not financial advice.

Investor profile

Who invests in Warilla

Owner-occupied 58%Rented 42%
Investor activityATO
Negatively geared4.6%
569 of 1,280 landlords
Avg rental loss$7,304/yr
Landlords (rental income)1,280
Reported capital gains728
Investor exposure index(low vs national)47.1/100
The read

Mixed owner-renter market

56% of homes here are owner-occupied and 40% rented, with 5% of landlords negatively geared.

Why it fits

A balanced 56% owner-occupier / 40% renter mix.

What to check

Social housing is 18% of dwellings — check tenant mix and resale demand.

ABS Census 2021 tenure (G37), ATO postcode rental statistics, and QuickProperty's investor-exposure index. Owner-occupied = owned outright + with a mortgage.

Mortgage affordability

91%
of household income to service a new loan
21.2 yrs
to save a 20% deposit
Severe
housing-stress band
Rent vs buyRenting cheaper

New-loan repayment $3,909/mo vs median rent $2,652/mo (+47% · +$290/wk)

If rates move

At 4.0%: $3,113/mo (-796) · at 6.0% (current): $3,909/mo · at 8.0%: $4,784/mo (+875)

Assumes a 20% deposit and a 30-year principal-and-interest loan at the current RBA new owner-occupier variable rate, against median weekly household income (ABS Census 2021). Stress bands follow the 30% / 45%-of-income thresholds used in ANZ-CoreLogic and AIHW reporting. Rent vs buy compares that repayment with the suburb's median advertised rent; it excludes rates, insurance, maintenance and deposit opportunity cost.

Stronger alternatives nearby

Higher yield

similar price · cross-LGA

Stronger 5-yr growth

similar price · cross-LGA

More affordable

lower price-to-income

Alternatives are similar-priced suburbs (0.7–1.4x this suburb's median) in other council areas that exceed it on the named metric. Indicative — not financial advice.

Affordability

Buying
15.9x
median home price as a multiple of annual household income
Stretched
Renting
62%
median weekly rent as a share of gross household income (the 30% rule)
High stress

Owners with a mortgage repay a median of $1,733/mo, while renters pay about $2,652/mo — renting runs $919/mo higher on these medians.

Median price
$815K
Household income · yr
$51K
Median rent · wk
$612
Owner mortgage · mo
$1,733
Gross yield
3.9%

Household income

$51K household · yr-37.7% vs NSW suburb median
Personal
$28K
Family
$70K
Household
$51K
Household income distribution (ABS Census 2021 · weekly)9% could service the median house
Under $300
111
$300-649
590
$650-999
444
$1,000-1,499
368
$1,500-1,999
255
$2,000-2,999
306
$3,000-3,999
115
$4,000+
94

Serviceability line: a household needs about $3,007/wk to hold a new loan on the median house at 30% of income (20% deposit, 30-year P&I, current RBA rate).

At the median asking rent, about 78% of households here would spend more than 30% of income on rent (rent stress line: $2,040/wk income).

Median taxable income trend (ATO, 2018-19 – 2022-23)$45K → $54K

Housing stock and tenure

Tenure (2,501 households)18.4% social housing
Owned outright
35%
Owned with mortgage
21%
Rented
40%
Dwelling structure6.0% of dwellings unoccupied on census night
Separate house
71%
Townhouse / semi
14%
Flat / apartment
6%

Getting to work: 78% drive, 2% public transport, 3% walk or cycle, 15% worked from home (2021 Census, taken during COVID-era work-from-home arrangements).

Schools

Total4
Avg ICSEA908
Students746
Government4
  • Warilla Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 937
  • Warilla North Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 872Zoned
  • Mount Warrigal Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 885
  • Peterborough SchoolSpecial · Government · ICSEA 938

1 of 4 schools here operate published enrolment zones (catchments). Zone boundaries set eligibility — check the official source for the exact catchment. Not enrolment advice.

Livability

86/ 100 livability index

Top 14% most liveable of 4,565Australian suburbs.

Peer distributionstronger than 86% of Australian suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Everyday access83
Public transport (47 stops)82
Schools & hospitals81

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

Suburb-level access-density index (not an address-level walk-time score), normalised within Australian suburbs. Method based on the Urban Liveability Index (Higgs et al. 2019) and Walk Score — three equal-weighted domains combined with an imbalance penalty.

Crime April 2025 - March 2026
2,345
2,875 per 100k
D4 vs AU

Crime

Rate · per 100k2,875
Total incidents2,345· April 2025 - March 2026
  • Assault53354%
  • Sexual Offences22523%
  • Robbery101%
  • Break And Enter21422%

Bushfire exposure

No mapped exposure ~0.5%
~0.5% of the suburb is Bush Fire Prone Land

Estimated exposure to NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land (CC BY), point-sampled across the suburb. This shows how much of the suburb sits within the official hazard layer — it is not a Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) rating or a property-level assessment. Obtain a BAL assessment (AS 3959) for an individual property.

Planning zones

Dominant zone Low Density Residential
Residential 72% Public / Open space 16% Commercial / Mixed 3% Other 3%
Residential density: Low

Land-use mix estimated by point-sampling the suburb against NSW EPI Land Zoning polygons (CC BY 4.0). This is a suburb-level snapshot of planning zones, not a parcel-level zoning certificate or development advice. Check the relevant planning scheme for an individual property.

Population outlook

20,348 people · 202219,863 by 2032 (-2.4%)

ABS population projection (2022 base) for the Warilla SA2 statistical area — the finest official projection grain available; suburb-level projections do not exist.

Full data detail Census · ATO · ABS · state datasets
Warilla NSW — Property Data and Demographics

Warilla is a mid-sized suburb in New South Wales within the Shellharbour local government area (postcode 2528). It is home to about 6,226 residents, with an older-leaning population and a median age of 45. Households earn a median income of $51K per year, with an average household size of 2.3 people. Recent annual estimates show population movement into the broader catchment, with population growth running at +1.9% year-on-year at the LGA level. NSW employment has moved +1.2% year-on-year in the official ABS Labour Force trend series, which provides the broader jobs backdrop for this suburb. NSW also had 35 Commonwealth-backed major projects under construction, 17 underway, and 67 in planning as at 2025-09-01, which is useful as a broader delivery backdrop rather than a suburb-specific project count. The most common occupations are community & personal service, technicians & trades, labourers. Employment in the area leans toward healthcare and retail trade. The top ancestries reported are Australian, English, Scottish.

Median house prices in Warilla stand at $815,000, having declined by 3.6% over the last twelve months. Units have a median price of $828,000 (+18.2% YoY). The current median weekly rent is $612. This gives a gross rental yield of approximately 3.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,733.

Warilla is served by 4 schools, including 3 primary, 1 special. The average ICSEA score is 908, which is below the national average of 1,000. Public transport access includes 47 bus stops. The crime rate in the Shellharbour LGA is below average at 2,875 incidents per 100,000 population.

From an investment perspective, Warilla shows a gross rental yield of approximately 3.9%, rated as moderate yield. Property prices sit below the state median ($815K/$1.5M), which can point to relative value. The price-to-income ratio of 15.9x is considered stretched. House prices have moved -3.6% year-on-year. Population growth of +1.9% year-on-year points to stable demand fundamentals. Building approvals have changed +0% year-on-year, indicating steady development activity.

Market & money
Investment signalsHeuristics
Rental Yield3.9%· Moderate Yield
Price vs State$815K/$1.5M Below Median
Affordability15.9x Stretched
Price Momentum-3.6% Falling
Pop. Growth+1.9%· Stable
Development+0%· Steady
InvestmentNSW
Mortgage · mth$1,733
Rent · wk(Census)$300
Market rent · wk(2026-05)$612
Gross yield1.9%
Price / income15.9x
Sales vol (latest Q)(2026-Q1)5
Population growth · Shellharbour LGAABS ERP
Population (2025)83,228
5-year growth+2.1% CAGR
YoY change+1.9%
20012025
Development · Shellharbour LGAABS Approvals
Approvals (2026)562
Houses 67%Units 33%
YoY change+0%
Employment · Shellharbour LGASALM
Unemployment (Dec-25)6.8%
YoY change-0.2pp
Dec-10Dec-25
Property investors · Postcode 2528ATO
Negatively geared4.6%
569 of filers
Avg rental loss$7,304/yr
Landlords (rental income)1,280
Reported capital gains728
People & prosperity
DemographicsCensus 21
Population6,226
Median age45
Household size2.3
HH income · wk$987
Personal income · wk$531
Persons / bedroom0.8
IncomeATO 22-23
Median income$53,509
Mean income$61,069
Earners11,288
YoY change+9.2%
SEIFA indexABS
Advantage (IRSAD)1/10
Education (IEO)1/10
Economic (IER)1/10
Disadvantage (IRSD)1/10
Income momentumCensus 16→21
HH income · wk$854 → $987
Change+15.6%
vs NSW median-5 pp
Median rent+13.2%
stablevs NSW 2016–21
Area & amenity
Local amenitiesOSM
Supermarkets2
Pharmacies2
GP / clinics3
Fuel stations1
Cafes & dining7
aldi1
woolworths1
TransportGTFS
Bus stops47
Hospitals · Shellharbour LGAAIHW
Public1
Private1
Shellharbour Hospitalpublic
Shellharbour Private Hospitalprivate
Aged care · Shellharbour LGAGEN
Facilities5
Residential places571
Warrigal Mount Terry151 places
Warrigal Care Albion Park Rail149 places
Warrigal Care Shell Cove131 places
Uniting Elanora Shellharbour100 places
Warrigal Care Mt Warrigal40 places
Childcare · Shellharbour LGAACECQA
Services60
Approved places3,279
Exceeding NQS20
The Grove Academy - Shell Cove142 places
Little Zak's Academy Shellharbour138 places
Junior Einsteins Nurturing Centre - Shell Heights125 places
MindChamps Early Learning @ Shellharbour120 places
CatholicCare OSHC- St Paul's Albion Park107 places
Little Peoples Early Learning Centre Oak Flats106 places
+54 more in Shellharbour LGA
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Current status
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Sources & freshness
Strong evidence

Warilla has enough direct local evidence for a first-pass decision.

QuickProperty mixes release files, Census baselines, and matched local services on this page. Read the status panel before treating every metric as equally fresh.

PRICE POSTURE
NSW price medians are parser-guarded official records.

Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records

RENT POSTURE
Rent is using a state market dataset when available.

Use current rent as a starting signal, not as a fixed underwriting truth.

SERVICE POSTURE
Service coverage is matched locally, not inferred nationally.

Schools, transport, and hospitals are useful as presence signals, but they still have different source cadences.

Data status
Property prices
NSW Valuer General · 2026-Q1 · Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records
medium stability · automated · every update · weekly
Available
Market rent
NSW Fair Trading · 2026-05 · State market dataset
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Crime
BOCSAR · April 2025 - March 2026 · Area-level release dataset
medium stability · automated · every update · release-based
Available
Schools
ACARA 2025 · 4 schools matched
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Hospitals
AIHW · No linked local hospital coverage
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Missing
Transport
GTFS feeds · 47 matched stops/stations
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Available
Population growth
ABS ERP · 2025 · Annual estimate series
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Building approvals
ABS Building Approvals · 2026 · Annual release series
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Available means a direct local dataset is linked. Verify means coverage exists but freshness or precision is weaker, such as ABS price fallback, Census rent fallback, or low-confidence hospital matching.

Warilla FAQ

Common questions
  1. What LGA is Warilla in?

    Warilla is in the Shellharbour Local Government Area, NSW, postcode 2528. Council-level context for Shellharbour LGA (suburb mix, population, rent, and price coverage) is available on the QuickProperty LGA page.

  2. What is the median house price in Warilla?

    The current median house price in Warilla, NSW is $815K, based on the latest available sales data from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region.

  3. What is the typical weekly rent in Warilla?

    The median weekly rent in Warilla is $612/wk, based on the current market rent dataset. The current rent signal is income-stretched rent market.

  4. What does the rent signal say about Warilla?

    Income-stretched rent market: Weekly rent screens at about 59% of annual income. Use this as a suburb screening signal before comparing candidates or modelling a purchase; the matching rent ranking can provide broader market context.

  5. Is Warilla a good investment?

    QuickProperty's investment signals for Warilla show: Moderate Yield, Below Median, Stretched. These are computed from price, rent, income, and population data — not an opaque score.

  6. Where does QuickProperty get its data for Warilla?

    Property prices come from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region. Demographics are from ABS Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA. Crime statistics are from state police agencies. Transport data is sourced from GTFS feeds.

  7. How often is the Warilla data updated?

    Property prices update quarterly. RBA macro indicators update with each deploy. Demographics are from Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA 2025.