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Suburb profile ·Shellharbour LGA · NSW ·2529

Blackbutt NSW 2529

Blackbutt is in Shellharbour LGA, NSW, postcode 2529, with population 3,291.

The read

Growth-momentum

The page has enough signal to be useful, but the story is mixed rather than decisive. Use compare mode to pressure-test it against stronger nearby options, then use the calculator if it still makes the shortlist.

$785/wk
Rising
+6.1% YoY
Mar 2025 → May 2026 · 15 periods
NSW Fair Trading · postcode 2529 · May 2026
$790
$720
Mar 2025May 2026
Why it fits

Recent price movement shows visible market momentum. Transport coverage adds a practical access signal.

What to check

Gross yield looks low for an income-first use case.

Median house
$1.3M
House median, latest period
24.2%YoY D8 vs AU
Median rent
$785/wk
Rent-pressure candidate
6.1%YoY D10 vs AU
Gross yield
3.2%
Low yield band
D9 vs AU
Population
3,291
3K local footprint
D9 vs AU
Schools
No matched school data
Drive to city
1h 40m
111.8 km to Sydney CBD · free-flow
Solar
4,843
327 added 12mo · 33MW
Price cycleAt its peak
LowPeak

At / near its all-time high

See trend depth →

Price history

Trend & investor depth

Cycle positionAt its peak
Low · 2008Peak · 2026

At / near its all-time high

Price growth (compound)% per year
3-yr
+6.4%
5-yr
+6.7%
10-yr
+7.6%
Indicative cashflow-$646/wk (-$33,617/yr) · interest-only @ 6.2%, 80% LVR
Market turnover3.7% of homes traded/yr (47 sales · +6% vs 3-yr avg)
Rent stabilitystable — rents vary ±2.1% around trend (short window, 15 pts)
Value vs advantage+65% vs suburbs of similar SEIFA advantage (decile 4)

Indicative cashflow is interest-only and excludes tax — use the calculator for a full projection. Turnover divides recorded sales by an estimated household count (population over average household size).

Investment grade

Cgrade · 48/100 · top 52% of 3,605AU suburbs
Peer distributionstronger than 48% of AU suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Capital growth31
Rental yield57
Stability62
Volatility-10.0ppCycle-2.0

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer · stability drivers signed (+ = steadier)

Relative grade across Australian suburbs, combining qp's capital-growth (multi-year CAGR + cycle timing), rental-yield, and stability (price volatility + cycle + affordability) metrics via a three-pillar property-scoring method with an imbalance penalty. Within-Australia relative, indicative only — not financial advice.

Investor profile

Who invests in Blackbutt

Owner-occupied 70%Rented 30%
Investor activityATO
Negatively geared7.6%
1,344 of 2,731 landlords
Avg rental loss$8,119/yr
Landlords (rental income)2,731
Reported capital gains1,437
Investor exposure index(moderate vs national)56.9/100
The read

Mixed owner-renter market

69% of homes here are owner-occupied and 29% rented, with 8% of landlords negatively geared.

Why it fits

A balanced 69% owner-occupier / 29% renter mix.

What to check

Social housing is 8% of dwellings — check tenant mix and resale demand.

ABS Census 2021 tenure (G37), ATO postcode rental statistics, and QuickProperty's investor-exposure index. Owner-occupied = owned outright + with a mortgage.

Mortgage affordability

89%
of household income to service a new loan
20.7 yrs
to save a 20% deposit
Severe
housing-stress band
Rent vs buyRenting cheaper

New-loan repayment $6,211/mo vs median rent $3,402/mo (+83% · +$648/wk)

If rates move

At 4.0%: $4,946/mo (-1,265) · at 6.0% (current): $6,211/mo · at 8.0%: $7,602/mo (+1,390)

Assumes a 20% deposit and a 30-year principal-and-interest loan at the current RBA new owner-occupier variable rate, against median weekly household income (ABS Census 2021). Stress bands follow the 30% / 45%-of-income thresholds used in ANZ-CoreLogic and AIHW reporting. Rent vs buy compares that repayment with the suburb's median advertised rent; it excludes rates, insurance, maintenance and deposit opportunity cost.

Stronger alternatives nearby

Higher yield

similar price · cross-LGA

Stronger 5-yr growth

similar price · cross-LGA

More affordable

lower price-to-income

Alternatives are similar-priced suburbs (0.7–1.4x this suburb's median) in other council areas that exceed it on the named metric. Indicative — not financial advice.

Affordability

Buying
15.5x
median home price as a multiple of annual household income
Stretched
Renting
49%
median weekly rent as a share of gross household income (the 30% rule)
High stress

Owners with a mortgage repay a median of $2,000/mo, while renters pay about $3,402/mo — renting runs $1,402/mo higher on these medians.

Median price
$1.29M
Household income · yr
$83K
Median rent · wk
$785
Owner mortgage · mo
$2,000
Gross yield
3.2%

Household income

$83K household · yr+1.3% vs NSW suburb median
Personal
$37K
Family
$104K
Household
$83K
Household income distribution (ABS Census 2021 · weekly)fewer than 12% could service the median house
Under $300
44
$300-649
168
$650-999
168
$1,000-1,499
170
$1,500-1,999
120
$2,000-2,999
213
$3,000-3,999
148
$4,000+
135

Serviceability line: a household needs about $4,778/wk to hold a new loan on the median house at 30% of income (20% deposit, 30-year P&I, current RBA rate).

At the median asking rent, about 70% of households here would spend more than 30% of income on rent (rent stress line: $2,617/wk income).

Housing stock and tenure

Tenure (1,218 households)8.0% social housing
Owned outright
41%
Owned with mortgage
29%
Rented
29%
Dwelling structure3.6% of dwellings unoccupied on census night
Separate house
70%
Townhouse / semi
28%
Flat / apartment
2%

Getting to work: 71% drive, 1% public transport, 2% walk or cycle, 23% worked from home (2021 Census, taken during COVID-era work-from-home arrangements).

Livability

22/ 100 livability index

Top 78% most liveable of 4,565Australian suburbs.

Peer distributionstronger than 22% of Australian suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Everyday access0
Public transport (22 stops)57
Schools & hospitals0

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

Suburb-level access-density index (not an address-level walk-time score), normalised within Australian suburbs. Method based on the Urban Liveability Index (Higgs et al. 2019) and Walk Score — three equal-weighted domains combined with an imbalance penalty.

Crime April 2025 - March 2026
2,345
2,875 per 100k
D4 vs AU

Crime

Rate · per 100k2,875
Total incidents2,345· April 2025 - March 2026
  • Assault53354%
  • Sexual Offences22523%
  • Robbery101%
  • Break And Enter21422%

Bushfire exposure

High exposure ~43.3%
~43.3% of the suburb is Bush Fire Prone Land · ~33.8% Category 1 (highest hazard)

Estimated exposure to NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land (CC BY), point-sampled across the suburb. This shows how much of the suburb sits within the official hazard layer — it is not a Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) rating or a property-level assessment. Obtain a BAL assessment (AS 3959) for an individual property.

Planning zones

Dominant zone Public Recreation
Public / Open space 43% Residential 42% Other 3% Commercial / Mixed 2%
Residential density: Low

Land-use mix estimated by point-sampling the suburb against NSW EPI Land Zoning polygons (CC BY 4.0). This is a suburb-level snapshot of planning zones, not a parcel-level zoning certificate or development advice. Check the relevant planning scheme for an individual property.

Population outlook

10,655 people · 202212,026 by 2032 (+12.9%)

ABS population projection (2022 base) for the Shellharbour - Oak Flats SA2 statistical area — the finest official projection grain available; suburb-level projections do not exist.

Full data detail Census · ATO · ABS · state datasets
Blackbutt NSW — Property Data and Demographics

Blackbutt is a compact suburb in New South Wales within the Shellharbour local government area (postcode 2529). With a population of 3,291, the suburb has a settled mid-life population with a median age of 43. Households earn a median income of $83K per year, with an average household size of 2.6 people. Recent annual estimates show population movement into the broader catchment, with population growth running at +1.9% year-on-year at the LGA level. NSW employment has moved +1.2% year-on-year in the official ABS Labour Force trend series, which provides the broader jobs backdrop for this suburb. NSW also had 35 Commonwealth-backed major projects under construction, 17 underway, and 67 in planning as at 2025-09-01, which is useful as a broader delivery backdrop rather than a suburb-specific project count. The most common occupations are professionals, technicians & trades, clerical & administrative. Employment in the area leans toward healthcare and retail trade. The top ancestries reported are English, Australian, Macedonian.

Median house prices in Blackbutt stand at $1.3 million, having climbed sharply by 24.2% over the last twelve months. Units have a median price of $770,000 (+14.9% YoY). The current median weekly rent is $785. This gives a gross rental yield of approximately 3.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $2,000.

Public transport access includes 22 bus stops. The crime rate in the Shellharbour LGA is below average at 2,875 incidents per 100,000 population.

From an investment perspective, Gross rental yield sits at around 3.2% (moderate yield). Property prices are near the state median ($1.3M/$1.5M). The price-to-income ratio of 15.5x is considered stretched. House prices have moved +24.2% year-on-year. Population growth of +1.9% year-on-year points to stable demand fundamentals. Building approvals have changed +0% year-on-year, indicating steady development activity.

Market & money
Investment signalsHeuristics
Rental Yield3.2%· Moderate Yield
Price vs State$1.3M/$1.5M· Near Median
Affordability15.5x Stretched
Price Momentum+24.2% Rising
Pop. Growth+1.9%· Stable
Development+0%· Steady
InvestmentNSW
Mortgage · mth$2,000
Rent · wk(Census)$420
Market rent · wk(2026-05)$785
Gross yield1.7%
Price / income15.5x
Sales vol (latest Q)(2025-Q3)10
Population growth · Shellharbour LGAABS ERP
Population (2025)83,228
5-year growth+2.1% CAGR
YoY change+1.9%
20012025
Development · Shellharbour LGAABS Approvals
Approvals (2026)562
Houses 67%Units 33%
YoY change+0%
Employment · Shellharbour LGASALM
Unemployment (Dec-25)6.8%
YoY change-0.2pp
Dec-10Dec-25
Property investors · Postcode 2529ATO
Negatively geared7.6%
1,344 of filers
Avg rental loss$8,119/yr
Landlords (rental income)2,731
Reported capital gains1,437
People & prosperity
DemographicsCensus 21
Population3,291
Median age43
Household size2.6
HH income · wk$1,604
Personal income · wk$707
Persons / bedroom0.8
SEIFA indexABS
Advantage (IRSAD)4/10
Education (IEO)4/10
Economic (IER)4/10
Disadvantage (IRSD)5/10
Income momentumCensus 16→21
HH income · wk$1,373 → $1,604
Change+16.8%
vs NSW median-3.8 pp
Median rent+13.5%
stablevs NSW 2016–21
Area & amenity
TransportGTFS
Bus stops22
Hospitals · Shellharbour LGAAIHW
Public1
Private1
Shellharbour Hospitalpublic
Shellharbour Private Hospitalprivate
Aged care · Shellharbour LGAGEN
Facilities5
Residential places571
Warrigal Mount Terry151 places
Warrigal Care Albion Park Rail149 places
Warrigal Care Shell Cove131 places
Uniting Elanora Shellharbour100 places
Warrigal Care Mt Warrigal40 places
Childcare · Shellharbour LGAACECQA
Services60
Approved places3,279
Exceeding NQS20
The Grove Academy - Shell Cove142 places
Little Zak's Academy Shellharbour138 places
Junior Einsteins Nurturing Centre - Shell Heights125 places
MindChamps Early Learning @ Shellharbour120 places
CatholicCare OSHC- St Paul's Albion Park107 places
Little Peoples Early Learning Centre Oak Flats106 places
+54 more in Shellharbour LGA
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Current status
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Sources & freshness
Strong evidence

Blackbutt has enough direct local evidence for a first-pass decision.

QuickProperty mixes release files, Census baselines, and matched local services on this page. Read the status panel before treating every metric as equally fresh.

PRICE POSTURE
NSW price medians are parser-guarded official records.

Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records

RENT POSTURE
Rent is using a state market dataset when available.

Use current rent as a starting signal, not as a fixed underwriting truth.

SERVICE POSTURE
Service coverage is matched locally, not inferred nationally.

Schools, transport, and hospitals are useful as presence signals, but they still have different source cadences.

Data status
Property prices
NSW Valuer General · 2025-Q3 · Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records
medium stability · automated · every update · weekly
Available
Market rent
NSW Fair Trading · 2026-05 · State market dataset
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Crime
BOCSAR · April 2025 - March 2026 · Area-level release dataset
medium stability · automated · every update · release-based
Available
Schools
ACARA 2025 · No local school matches exposed
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Missing
Hospitals
AIHW · No linked local hospital coverage
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Missing
Transport
GTFS feeds · 22 matched stops/stations
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Available
Population growth
ABS ERP · 2025 · Annual estimate series
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Building approvals
ABS Building Approvals · 2026 · Annual release series
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Available means a direct local dataset is linked. Verify means coverage exists but freshness or precision is weaker, such as ABS price fallback, Census rent fallback, or low-confidence hospital matching.

Blackbutt FAQ

Common questions
  1. What LGA is Blackbutt in?

    Blackbutt is in the Shellharbour Local Government Area, NSW, postcode 2529. Council-level context for Shellharbour LGA (suburb mix, population, rent, and price coverage) is available on the QuickProperty LGA page.

  2. What is the median house price in Blackbutt?

    The current median house price in Blackbutt, NSW is $1.3M, based on the latest available sales data from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region.

  3. What is the typical weekly rent in Blackbutt?

    The median weekly rent in Blackbutt is $785/wk, based on the current market rent dataset. The current rent signal is rent-pressure candidate.

  4. What does the rent signal say about Blackbutt?

    Rent-pressure candidate: Blackbutt rents screen above the local benchmark. Use this as a suburb screening signal before comparing candidates or modelling a purchase; the matching rent ranking can provide broader market context.

  5. Is Blackbutt a good investment?

    QuickProperty's investment signals for Blackbutt show: Moderate Yield, Near Median, Stretched. These are computed from price, rent, income, and population data — not an opaque score.

  6. Where does QuickProperty get its data for Blackbutt?

    Property prices come from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region. Demographics are from ABS Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA. Crime statistics are from state police agencies. Transport data is sourced from GTFS feeds.

  7. How often is the Blackbutt data updated?

    Property prices update quarterly. RBA macro indicators update with each deploy. Demographics are from Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA 2025.