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Suburb profile ·Shellharbour LGA · NSW ·2529

Oak Flats NSW 2529

Oak Flats is in Shellharbour LGA, NSW, postcode 2529, with population 6,840.

The read

Growth-momentum

The page has enough signal to be useful, but the story is mixed rather than decisive. Use compare mode to pressure-test it against stronger nearby options, then use the calculator if it still makes the shortlist.

$785/wk
Rising
+6.1% YoY
Mar 2025 → May 2026 · 15 periods
NSW Fair Trading · postcode 2529 · May 2026
$790
$720
Mar 2025May 2026
Why it fits

Recent price movement shows visible market momentum. School coverage gives the page a stronger family/livability signal. Transport coverage adds a practical access signal.

Median house
$1.0M
House median, latest period
11.6%YoY D6 vs AU
Median rent
$785/wk
Rent-pressure candidate
6.1%YoY D10 vs AU
Gross yield
4.0%
Moderate yield band
D10 vs AU
Population
6,840
7K local footprint
D10 vs AU
Schools
4
Matched school context
D10 vs AU
Drive to city
1h 40m
111.8 km to Sydney CBD · free-flow
Solar
4,843
327 added 12mo · 33MW
Price cycleAt its peak
LowPeak

At / near its all-time high

See trend depth →

Price history

Houses to Q2'26 · Units to Q4'25 — house and unit medians are released on separate cycles, so their latest period can differ.

Trend & investor depth

Cycle positionAt its peak
Low · 2005Peak · 2026

At / near its all-time high

Price growth (compound)% per year
3-yr
+6.2%
5-yr
+5.5%
10-yr
+6.4%
Indicative cashflow-$384/wk (-$19,977/yr) · interest-only @ 6.2%, 80% LVR
Market turnover2.7% of homes traded/yr (74 sales · -48% vs 3-yr avg)
Rent stabilitystable — rents vary ±2.1% around trend (short window, 15 pts)
Value vs advantage+30% vs suburbs of similar SEIFA advantage (decile 4)

Indicative cashflow is interest-only and excludes tax — use the calculator for a full projection. Turnover divides recorded sales by an estimated household count (population over average household size).

Investment grade

Bgrade · 62/100 · top 38% of 3,605AU suburbs
Peer distributionstronger than 62% of AU suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Capital growth23
Rental yield78
Stability80
Volatility-8.2ppCycle-2.0

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer · stability drivers signed (+ = steadier)

Relative grade across Australian suburbs, combining qp's capital-growth (multi-year CAGR + cycle timing), rental-yield, and stability (price volatility + cycle + affordability) metrics via a three-pillar property-scoring method with an imbalance penalty. Within-Australia relative, indicative only — not financial advice.

Investor profile

Who invests in Oak Flats

Owner-occupied 75%Rented 25%
Investor activityATO
Negatively geared7.6%
1,344 of 2,731 landlords
Avg rental loss$8,119/yr
Landlords (rental income)2,731
Reported capital gains1,437
Investor exposure index(moderate vs national)52.6/100
The read

Owner-occupier stronghold

74% of homes here are owner-occupied and 24% rented, with 8% of landlords negatively geared.

Why it fits

74% owner-occupied — owner-occupiers hold longer and absorb rate shocks, supporting price stability.

ABS Census 2021 tenure (G37), ATO postcode rental statistics, and QuickProperty's investor-exposure index. Owner-occupied = owned outright + with a mortgage.

Mortgage affordability

76%
of household income to service a new loan
17.6 yrs
to save a 20% deposit
Severe
housing-stress band
Rent vs buyRenting cheaper

New-loan repayment $4,892/mo vs median rent $3,402/mo (+44% · +$344/wk)

If rates move

At 4.0%: $3,896/mo (-997) · at 6.0% (current): $4,892/mo · at 8.0%: $5,988/mo (+1,095)

Assumes a 20% deposit and a 30-year principal-and-interest loan at the current RBA new owner-occupier variable rate, against median weekly household income (ABS Census 2021). Stress bands follow the 30% / 45%-of-income thresholds used in ANZ-CoreLogic and AIHW reporting. Rent vs buy compares that repayment with the suburb's median advertised rent; it excludes rates, insurance, maintenance and deposit opportunity cost.

Stronger alternatives nearby

Higher yield

similar price · cross-LGA

Stronger 5-yr growth

similar price · cross-LGA

More affordable

lower price-to-income

Alternatives are similar-priced suburbs (0.7–1.4x this suburb's median) in other council areas that exceed it on the named metric. Indicative — not financial advice.

Affordability

Buying
13.2x
median home price as a multiple of annual household income
Stretched
Renting
53%
median weekly rent as a share of gross household income (the 30% rule)
High stress

Owners with a mortgage repay a median of $1,950/mo, while renters pay about $3,402/mo — renting runs $1,452/mo higher on these medians.

Median price
$1.02M
Household income · yr
$77K
Median rent · wk
$785
Owner mortgage · mo
$1,950
Gross yield
4.0%

Household income

$77K household · yr-6% vs NSW suburb median
Personal
$36K
Family
$94K
Household
$77K
Household income distribution (ABS Census 2021 · weekly)9% could service the median house
Under $300
75
$300-649
329
$650-999
373
$1,000-1,499
426
$1,500-1,999
296
$2,000-2,999
478
$3,000-3,999
230
$4,000+
185

Serviceability line: a household needs about $3,763/wk to hold a new loan on the median house at 30% of income (20% deposit, 30-year P&I, current RBA rate).

At the median asking rent, about 77% of households here would spend more than 30% of income on rent (rent stress line: $2,617/wk income).

Housing stock and tenure

Tenure (2,539 households)1.1% social housing
Owned outright
42%
Owned with mortgage
32%
Rented
24%
Dwelling structure4.2% of dwellings unoccupied on census night
Separate house
82%
Townhouse / semi
15%
Flat / apartment
2%

Getting to work: 73% drive, 2% public transport, 2% walk or cycle, 20% worked from home (2021 Census, taken during COVID-era work-from-home arrangements).

Schools

Total4
Avg ICSEA978
Students2,458
Catholic1
Government3
  • Oak Flats Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 959Zoned
  • Balarang Public SchoolPrimary · Government · ICSEA 974Zoned
  • Oak Flats High SchoolSecondary · Government · ICSEA 932Zoned
  • Corpus Christi Catholic High SchoolSecondary · Catholic · ICSEA 1045

3 of 4 schools here operate published enrolment zones (catchments). Zone boundaries set eligibility — check the official source for the exact catchment. Not enrolment advice.

Livability

80/ 100 livability index

Top 20% most liveable of 4,565Australian suburbs.

Peer distributionstronger than 80% of Australian suburbs
WeakerTypicalStronger
Everyday access32
Public transport (40 stops)78
Schools & hospitals88

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

Suburb-level access-density index (not an address-level walk-time score), normalised within Australian suburbs. Method based on the Urban Liveability Index (Higgs et al. 2019) and Walk Score — three equal-weighted domains combined with an imbalance penalty.

Crime April 2025 - March 2026
2,345
2,875 per 100k
D4 vs AU

Crime

Rate · per 100k2,875
Total incidents2,345· April 2025 - March 2026
  • Assault53354%
  • Sexual Offences22523%
  • Robbery101%
  • Break And Enter21422%

Bushfire exposure

Low exposure ~9.3%
~9.3% of the suburb is Bush Fire Prone Land · ~4.7% Category 1 (highest hazard)

Estimated exposure to NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land (CC BY), point-sampled across the suburb. This shows how much of the suburb sits within the official hazard layer — it is not a Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) rating or a property-level assessment. Obtain a BAL assessment (AS 3959) for an individual property.

Planning zones

Dominant zone Low Density Residential
Residential 59% Public / Open space 17% Other 9% Industrial 5% Commercial / Mixed 1%
Residential density: Low

Land-use mix estimated by point-sampling the suburb against NSW EPI Land Zoning polygons (CC BY 4.0). This is a suburb-level snapshot of planning zones, not a parcel-level zoning certificate or development advice. Check the relevant planning scheme for an individual property.

Population outlook

10,655 people · 202212,026 by 2032 (+12.9%)

ABS population projection (2022 base) for the Shellharbour - Oak Flats SA2 statistical area — the finest official projection grain available; suburb-level projections do not exist.

Full data detail Census · ATO · ABS · state datasets
Oak Flats NSW — Property Data and Demographics

Oak Flats (postcode 2529) is a medium-sized suburb in New South Wales within the Shellharbour local government area. The area has roughly 6,840 residents and an established family demographic, with a median age of 42. Households earn a median income of $77K per year, with an average household size of 2.5 people. Recent annual estimates show population movement into the broader catchment, with population growth running at +1.9% year-on-year at the LGA level. NSW employment has moved +1.2% year-on-year in the official ABS Labour Force trend series, which provides the broader jobs backdrop for this suburb. NSW also had 35 Commonwealth-backed major projects under construction, 17 underway, and 67 in planning as at 2025-09-01, which is useful as a broader delivery backdrop rather than a suburb-specific project count. The most common occupations are technicians & trades, community & personal service, professionals. Employment in the area leans toward healthcare and construction. The top ancestries reported are English, Australian, Irish.

Oak Flats has a median house price of $1.0 million, which has jumped by 11.6% year-on-year. Units have a median price of $850,000 (+4.9% YoY). The current median weekly rent is $785. This gives a gross rental yield of approximately 4.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,950.

Oak Flats is served by 4 schools, including 2 primary, 2 secondary. The average ICSEA score is 978, which is around the national average of 1,000. Public transport access includes 1 rail station, 39 bus stops. Healthcare facilities include 1 public hospital. The crime rate in the Shellharbour LGA is below average at 2,875 incidents per 100,000 population.

On the investment side, The gross rental yield works out to roughly 4.0%, which reads as moderate yield. Property prices sit below the state median ($1.0M/$1.5M), which can point to relative value. The price-to-income ratio of 13.2x is considered stretched. House prices have moved +11.6% year-on-year. Population growth of +1.9% year-on-year points to stable demand fundamentals. Building approvals have changed +0% year-on-year, indicating steady development activity.

Market & money
Investment signalsHeuristics
Rental Yield4.0%· Moderate Yield
Price vs State$1.0M/$1.5M Below Median
Affordability13.2x Stretched
Price Momentum+11.6% Rising
Pop. Growth+1.9%· Stable
Development+0%· Steady
InvestmentNSW
Mortgage · mth$1,950
Rent · wk(Census)$440
Market rent · wk(2026-05)$785
Gross yield2.2%
Price / income13.2x
Sales vol (latest Q)(2026-Q2)9
Population growth · Shellharbour LGAABS ERP
Population (2025)83,228
5-year growth+2.1% CAGR
YoY change+1.9%
20012025
Development · Shellharbour LGAABS Approvals
Approvals (2026)562
Houses 67%Units 33%
YoY change+0%
Employment · Shellharbour LGASALM
Unemployment (Dec-25)6.8%
YoY change-0.2pp
Dec-10Dec-25
Property investors · Postcode 2529ATO
Negatively geared7.6%
1,344 of filers
Avg rental loss$8,119/yr
Landlords (rental income)2,731
Reported capital gains1,437
People & prosperity
DemographicsCensus 21
Population6,840
Median age42
Household size2.5
HH income · wk$1,488
Personal income · wk$698
Persons / bedroom0.8
SEIFA indexABS
Advantage (IRSAD)4/10
Education (IEO)2/10
Economic (IER)4/10
Disadvantage (IRSD)3/10
Income momentumCensus 16→21
HH income · wk$1,274 → $1,488
Change+16.8%
vs NSW median-3.8 pp
Median rent+25.7%
stablevs NSW 2016–21
Area & amenity
Local amenitiesOSM
Supermarkets0
Pharmacies0
GP / clinics0
Fuel stations1
Cafes & dining3
TransportGTFS
Rail stations1
Bus stops39
Oak Flats Station, Stanford Drive
Hospitals · Shellharbour LGAAIHW
Public1
Private1
Shellharbour Hospitalpublic · in suburb
Shellharbour Private Hospitalprivate
Aged care · Shellharbour LGAGEN
Facilities5
Residential places571
Warrigal Mount Terry151 places
Warrigal Care Albion Park Rail149 places
Warrigal Care Shell Cove131 places
Uniting Elanora Shellharbour100 places
Warrigal Care Mt Warrigal40 places
Childcare · Shellharbour LGAACECQA
Services60
Approved places3,279
Exceeding NQS20
The Grove Academy - Shell Cove142 places
Little Zak's Academy Shellharbour138 places
Junior Einsteins Nurturing Centre - Shell Heights125 places
MindChamps Early Learning @ Shellharbour120 places
CatholicCare OSHC- St Paul's Albion Park107 places
Little Peoples Early Learning Centre Oak Flats106 places · in suburb
+54 more in Shellharbour LGA
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Current status
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Sources & freshness
Strong evidence

Oak Flats carries enough direct local evidence for a first-pass decision.

QuickProperty mixes release files, Census baselines, and matched local services on this page. Read the status panel before treating every metric as equally fresh.

PRICE POSTURE
NSW price medians are parser-guarded official records.

Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records

RENT POSTURE
Rent is using a state market dataset when available.

Use current rent as a starting signal, not as a fixed underwriting truth.

SERVICE POSTURE
Service coverage is matched locally, not inferred nationally.

Schools, transport, and hospitals are useful as presence signals, but they still have different source cadences.

Data status
Property prices
NSW Valuer General · 2026-Q2 · Official sale records parsed from cached Bulk PSI ZIP files with parser guardrails for token sales, non-house zoning, and low-value strata component records
medium stability · automated · every update · weekly
Available
Market rent
NSW Fair Trading · 2026-05 · State market dataset
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Crime
BOCSAR · April 2025 - March 2026 · Area-level release dataset
medium stability · automated · every update · release-based
Available
Schools
ACARA 2025 · 4 schools matched
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Hospitals
AIHW · 1 hospitals matched
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Available
Transport
GTFS feeds · 40 matched stops/stations
medium stability · manual file · snapshot · mixed
Available
Population growth
ABS ERP · 2025 · Annual estimate series
stable source · automated · every update · annual
Available
Building approvals
ABS Building Approvals · 2026 · Annual release series
stable source · automated · every update · monthly
Available
Available means a direct local dataset is linked. Verify means coverage exists but freshness or precision is weaker, such as ABS price fallback, Census rent fallback, or low-confidence hospital matching.

Oak Flats FAQ

Common questions
  1. What LGA is Oak Flats in?

    Oak Flats is in the Shellharbour Local Government Area, NSW, postcode 2529. Council-level context for Shellharbour LGA (suburb mix, population, rent, and price coverage) is available on the QuickProperty LGA page.

  2. What is the median house price in Oak Flats?

    The current median house price in Oak Flats, NSW is $1.0M, based on the latest available sales data from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region.

  3. What is the typical weekly rent in Oak Flats?

    The median weekly rent in Oak Flats is $785/wk, based on the current market rent dataset. The current rent signal is rent-pressure candidate.

  4. What does the rent signal say about Oak Flats?

    Rent-pressure candidate: Oak Flats rents screen above the local benchmark. Use this as a suburb screening signal before comparing candidates or modelling a purchase; the matching rent ranking can provide broader market context.

  5. Is Oak Flats a good investment?

    QuickProperty's investment signals for Oak Flats show: Moderate Yield, Below Median, Stretched. These are computed from price, rent, income, and population data — not an opaque score.

  6. Where does QuickProperty get its data for Oak Flats?

    Property prices come from state Valuers General offices and ABS Data by Region. Demographics are from ABS Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA. Crime statistics are from state police agencies. Transport data is sourced from GTFS feeds.

  7. How often is the Oak Flats data updated?

    Property prices update quarterly. RBA macro indicators update with each deploy. Demographics are from Census 2021. School ICSEA scores are from ACARA 2025.